THE UNITED NATIONS IN 2015:  Some Alternative Futures

July 15, 2006

A Workshop Summary

INTRODUCTION

As the twenty-first century begins, the major instrument of global governance, the United
Nations (UN), is again in crisis. Multiple panels and commissions urge reforms so that the institution can meet the challenges of globalization and its impact on security and development
around the world. After much talk in the aftermath of Rwanda, a new genocide is occurring in Africa and the members of the Security Council have not directed the UN to intervene. Poverty and disease continue to grind down the aspirations of growing populations in the developing world. In New York, management and administrative reform proceeds, but its quiet successes are appreciated most by those already in the system, not by the customers receiving the services the UN provides. In the public debate in capitals and in universities, the demand for change is expressed by calls for either more inclusiveness (the south) or more effectiveness (the north). A new budget crisis brews in 2006, further polarizing the situation for an outgoing Secretary-General.

In the midst of all this uncertainty, no one knows if the UN will look fundamentally different in a decade. Most believe it will still exist, and will continue to under perform in some areas, and maintain its competence in others. The geopolitical shifts in Asia and in Asia's relations with the rest of the world could lead to a redistribution of power and patterns of participation, with or without formal, structural reform. Reform is not the only or even the most useful framework in which to consider the future of the UN; it is the current preoccupation, but it is important to look impartially at international trends that will challenge the UN and will test its ability to adapt to global dynamics, as well as forces for change within the UN system.

In May 2006, a group of 40 foreign policy experts spent two days thinking about the future of the UN. They included government practitioners and analysts, professionals with current and past assignments at the UN, academics with writings on multilateralism, and stakeholders from civil society who are familiar with parts of the UN system that attend to critical transnational issues including weapons of mass destruction, economic development, humanitarian needs, and human rights. This report captures the essence of the discussion, and offers some alternative futures that were considered, but do not necessarily reflect a consensus of the group. This exercise was initiated by the National Intelligence Council and supported by the Department of State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research's Office of External Research. The Stimson Center was responsible for developing the content of the workshop and for reporting its results; the views here should not be construed as representing the position of the Stimson Center or its staff.

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