Shifting Political Currents in Taiwan
January 15, 2008
The Kuomintang's
blowout victory in legislative elections
foreshadows significant transformation of
The Kuomintang’s (KMT) crushing defeat of President Chen Shui-bian’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party in the January 12 Legislative Yuan (LY) elections (effectively controlling 86 of 113 seats) greatly exceeded the expectations of almost all observers, even leading some people to wonder if the DPP can survive. That is cause for concern for a democracy whose health depends on lively competition between two largely centrist parties.
More
immediately, however, attention is focused on the
implications of the LY vote for the presidential election on March 22.
KMT
standard-bearer Ma Ying-jeou and his running mate previously enjoyed a
15-20
point lead in most polls (perhaps more realistically 10-15 percent when
discounting for polling bias). Immediately after the LY vote, that lead
rose to
over 30 points in one poll and over 40 in another. These kinds of
numbers won’t
be sustained, but they point to the problem the DPP will have in seeking
to
persuade voters not to “bandwagon” with the LY winners, giving the KMT
total
control, but rather to “balance” governmental power by handing the
presidency
to the DPP.
Already deeply frustrated with President Chen
Shui-bian’s
dominance of the campaign up to this point, DPP presidential hopeful
Frank
Hsieh Chang-ting has quickly seized control of the party, essentially
telling
people that if they don’t like his approach they should take their
support elsewhere.
He has accepted the chairmanship, and his right-hand man, Lee Ying-yuan,
is the
new party secretary-general, ensuring that day-to-day matters are
handled to
Hsieh’s liking.
Although still claiming to be the far
better protector of
Taiwan identity and interests while also reaching out to the Mainland in
a
variety of pragmatic ways–advocating increased charter flights, Mainland
tourism in Taiwan, and freer Taiwan investment across the Strait, Hsieh
will seek
to shed the party’s radical image and move toward the center. Still, he
will maintain his support for the DPP’s referendum on the March ballot
to
join the UN “in the name of ‘Taiwan’.”
While shunning every other
sovereignty-related issue in the campaign, on this one question he has
had to go
along with the party position, and he cannot drop it now. Despite
Hsieh’s
essentially moderate approach, that presents a predicament, as it is
this
referendum, with its reference to “Taiwan,” that has been most
problematic in
recent months, causing cool Washington-Taipei ties and generating
restrained but
unmistakable threats from Beijing about resort to force if things go too
far.
That said, the experience in the LY election –with
the two
referenda on the January 12 ballot reaching only half of the minimum
legal
requirement of 50% participation by all eligible Taiwan voters to be
valid—suggests
that the problematic UN referendum will not pass that bar, either. As
they did this time with great effect, the
KMT may well call for a boycott of the referenda in March.
“Taiwan
identity”
has become an important issue on the island, and while no political
aspirant can afford to ignore it, as noted the DPP particularly counts
on it to generate support. But
voters seem to have other things on their minds, as well, including the
economy
and social welfare, education and health care. It is true that the
overwhelming
KMT victory was due to a number of factors, including the structure of
the
newly organized LY districts and new voting rules. But the runaway
character of
the KMT victory is widely seen as a referendum on the performance of
President
Chen Shui-bian and the DPP government, with the voters rendering a harsh
judgment. Thus, although Frank Hsieh is known as a particularly good
campaigner, and nothing should be assumed about the outcome on March 22,
one
cannot overstate the challenge he faces in digging out of hole in which
the DPP
currently sits.
