A New Beginning in US-Iran Relations?
May 01, 2007
This weekend, the US Secretary of State may meet her Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki, at a meeting on Iraq in the Egyptian resort Sharm el-Sheikh. Even a brief encounter will raise expectations about a shift in US-Iran tensions. The most optimistic outcome is the first step in a long and painful walk towards a more normal relationship, but powerful forces in both countries will put obstacles in the path.
Secretary of State Rice’s latest words on Iran seem to suggest a change in policy tactics, if not goals. Rice has encouraged the Iranian foreign minister to attend the Iraq meeting this coming weekend in an Egyptian resort, although no one speaks of any planned substantive encounter. In November 2004, also at a dinner following a meeting on Iraq at Sharm el-Sheikh, then Secretary of State Powell sat between Iraqi FM Zebari and then-Iranian FM Kharrazi. They went to great length to avoid talking about anything substantive, including on Iraq.
For the US, a more realistic tone has emerged in Iran pronouncements. The Secretary of Defense insists that we seek a diplomatic solution to the nuclear problem, and that there is no active planning for military action, despite Iran’s non-compliance on the nuclear issue and its various activities in Iraq. Rice and her Undersecretary for Political Affairs, Nick Burns, talk about engaging with Iranian civil society, although that is surely a mixed message to the Iranians, who fear that funds for these cultural exchanges are really aimed at regime change.
For the Iranians, it is not clear whether Mottaki’s apparent willingness to attend the meeting in Sharm is based on a new desire to appear reasonable, in light of the UK naval incident, or whether it is to show Iran’s independence in setting its own Iraq policy. National Security Advisor Larijani made a quick trip to Baghdad in advance of the weekend meeting, and there are many bilateral Iraq-Iran issues that the US is not privy to, or in a position to influence.
Most likely, the meeting this weekend will indeed focus on Iraq. It will hopefully set a more energetic course in implementing the Compact for Iraq, which outlines the international community’s plans to provide aid, debt relief, and reconstruction assistance to Iraq. Iran and the US can do business in Iraq, to the benefit of all. Iran, for example, has reportedly tipped off American forces in Iraq to capture Abdul Hadi al-Iraqi, a senior Iraqi al-Qaeda militant who was revealed last week to have been arrested on the border between Iran and Iraq late last year. But the US will continue to keep pressure on Iran to stop providing technical support to various Iraqi insurgents.
A fleeting exchange of pleasantries between the US and Iranian representatives will surely not constitute a diplomatic breakthrough, but could help change the mood in the region, and create more favorable conditions for the hard work ahead on Iran’s nuclear program in particular. There are some signs that Iran is ready to work with the EU and others again, and that the US would join those talks, should Iran suspend its enrichment activities. But achieving something significant in US-Iran relations will likely occur beyond the timeframe of the Bush Administration.
