The US Should Wield a Stiletto on Iran, not a Club

October 13, 2011

The Iranian plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington is indeed an outrage.  We should take a moment to congratulate US intelligence and law enforcement agencies for their great work - on this Iranian blunder, as well as on the many other terrorist attacks on the US that have been foiled in recent years.   The FBI affidavit offered in support of the indictment of Manssor Arbabsiar (the naturalized US citizen who contacted a supposed Mexican hit man) and Gholan Shakuri (the puppet master in Iran's Quds covert operations unit) suggests that US authorities were on top of the clumsy caper from its very beginning.

Many questions remain about the poorly planned and ineptly executed plot.  Most importantly, was this a rogue operation initiated by one element of the Quds in order to embarrass other elements of Iran's security apparatus, or perhaps Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei  himself, or was it okayed by the highest authorities in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), of which Quds is a part, and even by the Supreme Leader?    To the degree the US can trace the origins of the operation beyond Shakuri, it would help American intelligence understand relationships and decision-making within Iran's government.  The answer, however, is not really important in determining what actions the US should or should not take in response.

In the hot aftermath of the plot's revelation, some US legislators - terming the plan "an act of war" - called for broad-based sanctions against Iran or even military strikes.  Senator Mark Kirk (R-IL), for example, used the occasion to renew his call for the US and the European Union (EU) to ban all transactions with Iran's Central Bank, thereby crippling the value of Iran's currency.  Leaving aside the question of the degree to which such an action taken solely by the US and EU might be counteracted by such other nations as China, India, and even South Korea, who are major Iranian customers, imposition of such broad-based economic sanctions would be counter-productive.

Today, the vast majority of Iran's population is alienated from their government.  They took to the streets by the millions two years ago but were brutally suppressed by the IRGC and affiliated militias, repressive actions which stopped overt protests but only inflamed smoldering passions.   Iran's one remaining governmental ally  in the Middle East, President Assad's regime in Syria, is tottering on the brink as a result of civil protests.  Iran's rulers know that if Assad goes, they are likely to be next.  

As the political, trade, and financial sanctions on Iran already in place begin to bite, hindering progress in its nuclear program, isolating the country from most other nations, and stemming its economic growth, resentment of the corruption that permeates Iranian society -with most of the ill-gotten gains falling into the hands of the IRGC, the clerical establishment, and other parts of the ruling elite - grows.  Any additional sanctions should be targeted narrowly against those planning and executing Iran's terrorist and subversive actions.  Broad-based sanctions that would harm the general population are not helpful in the cause of internal change.  Sen. Kirk said, "It's okay to take the food out of the mouths of the citizens from a government that is plotting an attack directly on American soil."  Such callous actions and attitudes can only set back chances for positive changes in Iran. 

Even worse would be military action.  Fortunately, most Americans understand the risks of a military strike, even if some of their representatives like to beat their chests periodically.  The conflict is not likely to end with a US air strike.  Iran would hit back at US and allied forces and assets, with a high risk that the US armed forces would for a third time become involved in a lengthy conflict in the Middle East.  The political and economic repercussions of such a conflict would be severe; not least of which would be once again uniting the Iranian people and their current rulers in hatred of the United States. 

The Obama Administration is correct to take time to muster global support for additional measures to isolate and punish the "bad guys" in Iran.  Unilaterally wielding a club against Tehran can only harm US interests in Iran and the Middle East more broadly.  A carefully aimed stiletto will do the job very nicely, thank you.