Japanese Diplomacy on Hold

June 15, 2011

A meeting of the Japan-US Security Consultative Committee, comprised of the Japanese and US foreign and defense ministers, is slated for late June, ahead of a September visit by the Japanese Prime Minister to the United States.  There are many issues that require consultation between the two allies, but domestic political circumstances in Japan have consistently hindered Japanese diplomacy, making any outcome beyond a joint statement unlikely. 

Much of Japanese leaders' energy remains focused on relief and reconstruction efforts in the aftermath of the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake on March 11.  This is certainly understandable, as the devastation suffered by the Tohoku region necessitates directed and sustained reconstruction efforts. 

However, parochial political maneuvering continues unabated among Japanese political leaders.  The most illustrative of such posturing is the submission of a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Naoto Kan by opposition parties on June 1.  While falling short of the necessary votes, their action extracted a promise of resignation at an undeclared date from Prime Minister Kan.

Moreover, a deep cleavage exists within the DPJ between the supporters of Kan and those of political power-broker Ichiro Ozawa and former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, which remains deep and irreparable.  Though Ozawa/Hatoyama supporters largely voted against the no-confidence measure in the end, the political noise leading up to the vote demonstrated Kan's lack of control over his party.  After the no-confidence measure Kan is weaker than ever, and with the opposition pushing for Kan to resign by the end of June the face of future leadership in Japan is exceptionally unclear.

The acrimony of Japanese politics is hardly new, as demonstrated by the relatively short terms of the previous four prime ministers.  The quick rotation of political leadership has led to shifting foreign policy priorities, most notably during the tenure of Yukio Hatoyama, and their adverse effects on Japanese diplomacy.  In the meantime, Russia and China have grown increasingly assertive in challenging Japan, dialogue with the United States has stalled, and discussions on important issues, such as Japanese participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, have been left unresolved.  The fast turnover of Japanese leaders makes sustained negotiations difficult.  Foreign diplomats are reluctant to fully engage for fear that their Japanese partners will change within the year.

The subjugation of foreign policy to domestic politics is also not a new phenomenon.  In the case of US-Japan relations, however, diplomacy has languished at precisely a time when creativity and vitality are needed.  For example, Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has stated, "I think it's extraordinarily important for the United States and Japan to take steps to ease the burden on the people of Okinawa - both in terms of operations and in terms of bases."[1]  At the same time he asserts the US and Japan intend to proceed according to the 2006 Joint Declaration and the May 28 Joint Declaration, which do not meet the demands of the Okinawan populace regarding US military basing.  Contradictions in alliance management such as this are not easily resolved, and an acceptable solution will require a sustained investment of political will.  Though basing issues are most publicized, the alliance faces several challenges of even greater magnitude, including addressing the myriad problems posed by North Korea and adapting to China's evolving regional role.  As long as Japan remains preoccupied with domestic politics, it is unlikely that decision makers in either country will be able to craft long-term solutions to these problems.

A resolution of the impasse may come in the form of a grand coalition within the Japanese Diet.  DPJ officials are trying to usher Kan out the door in order to make way for a leader more palatable to the LDP and New Komeito.  If such a coalition were to come about, stalled bills in the opposition-controlled House of Councillors could proceed and Japan could chart a more confident foreign policy.  There is precious little time to achieve such consensus before the Consultative Committee meeting, however, and US diplomats will be hesitant to enter serious negotiations over major issues if they don't know who their partners will be in the next couple of months.

The window for productive dialogue is closing rapidly before a prolonged hiatus.  Between political infighting in Japan and US diplomatic energy focused elsewhere, any tangible outcome is unlikely.  The alliance will have to weather this period, and it will remain to future leaders to attempt to craft creative solutions to these long-standing problems.

[1] http://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2011/05/164070.htm

Photo Credit: Dept. of State