Refugees Fleeing Syria May Become a Regional Problem

March 29, 2012

One year after the beginning of the Syrian revolution, Bashar al-Assad's crackdown on his people shows no signs of slowing. As the violence has intensified and started to spread, Syria's neighbors have experienced a surge in refugees crossing their borders recently, raising concerns of a potential refugee crisis. Currently, numbers are manageable, but governments and aid organizations claim to be preparing for the worst. Should the situation in Syria spiral into a protracted civil war, however, an exodus of refugees into Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan could unfold, with serious security implications for these countries and the region as a whole.

The United Nations estimate that the current total number of Syrians seeking refuge in Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan is approximately 34,000. Activists and humanitarian officials claim figures are far higher, as many cross Syria's borders illegally or decline to register with the UNHCR due to security concerns. According to data released by the Turkish Prime Ministry's Disaster and Emergency Management Directorate on March 21, the number of Syrian refugees in that country had grown to more than 16,000. In Lebanon, estimates released by the UN, local relief organizations, and security officials place the number of refugees within the country at anywhere from 7,000 to 14,000. In Jordan, numbers range from 5,000 to 7,000, though Jordanian officials have claimed that nearly 80,000 Syrians have crossed into the country since March 2011.^[1]

In response to mounting fears of another refugee influx similar to the Iraqi refugee crisis that they experience from 2006-2010, the Jordanian government has recently completed its first refugee camp in the northern outskirts of Mafraq, with plans to construct two more in the near future. In Turkey, the majority of Syrians are set up in eight camps in the southern provinces of Hatay and Gaziantep, and the government soon plans to transfer most of these refugees to a purpose-built container city in the Kilis province. This measure - along with Jordanian plans to construct "more permanent structures" for refugees equipped with electricity, water, and roads - reflects a growing sentiment that refugees are unlikely to return to Syria in the near future.

Though these camps may prove useful in absorbing refugees, capacities will not withstand an influx of hundreds of thousands. Neither Turkey nor Jordan has established a clear long-term strategy for handling an extensive, sudden displacement. The Lebanese government has declined to provide accommodations for incoming Syrians and has similarly not developed an approach for the situation.  

Current numbers are manageable according to the UNHCR and its local partner organizations that are providing the majority of aid and supplies to refugees. Nevertheless, these organizations concede that they will be unable to sustain relief services in the long-term without extensive international assistance. Additionally, most aid organizations have yet to develop long-term plans, despite that awareness that numbers may reach crisis levels.

Given the uptick in violence between government forces and the Syrian opposition, as well as the spread of unrest to major cities such as Aleppo and Damascus, the situation seems to be deteriorating at a rapid pace. Should this trend continue, the number of refugees fleeing Syria may reach levels that could prove disastrous for Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon. 

In this instance, Turkey likely would receive the largest number of Syrians, as it shares the longest border with Syria and has received the largest substantiated numbers to date. If numbers reach into the hundreds of thousands as many fear (the Turkish Red Crescent said it expects up to 500,000), Turkey may be compelled to create humanitarian corridors or buffer zones within Syria. Troops required to protect these safe areas may be forced into fighting, drawing Turkey further into the conflict and striking a blow to its "zero problems with neighbors" doctrine in the region. This deepening involvement may also ignite a conflict with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), as Kurdish militants recently threatened to turn all Kurdish populated areas into "war zones" should Turkish forces enter Syria.

Jordan maintains an open door policy towards Syrian refugees, and may experience an influx that would place an enormous strain on the country's already fragile economy and political environment. The areas in which Syrians have already settled are extremely under-resourced and are experiencing housing shortages, as well as overcrowding in schools and hospitals. If refugee numbers grew significantly, this issue would not only be exacerbated, but the economy and its already limited resources would also come under further strain as result of heavily subsidized water, gas, and electricity. Though Jordanians are generally welcoming toward their Syrian neighbors, if it's economic climate were to worsen as a result of the mounting Syrian presence, such an attitude may quickly change, and add to the deteriorating political situation facing the Kingdom.

Finally, Lebanon - the least prepared of Syria's neighbors in terms of handling massive refugee inflows - could be easily destabilized, given the country's uneasy sectarian and political balance. Already in Tripoli, a Sunni dominated city with a large Alawite minority, violent flare-ups have occurred between the two sects, serving as a cautionary example of how sectarian tensions may escalate. Support for refugees remains divided on political grounds between the government and opposition parties. Should a crisis occur, this fracture may serve as a key factor in rupturing Lebanon's political balance. This political division has also contributed to the lack of response to the current refugee situation there. The influx of refugees in the north has placed severe economic burdens on local communities, igniting protests from local leaders. Should massive refugee inflows take place in the coming months, without an adequate response, these communities may collapse economically, further contributing to unrest within the country.

The threat posed to the stability of Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon from a looming refugee crisis adds even more urgency to the need for a solution in ending the violence in Syria. The international community must increase its efforts to aid these countries in preparation for a worst-case scenario or otherwise face a crisis much more substantial than the one already at hand.

[1] This number is likely inflated to increase the amount of international aid sent to Jordan.

Photo Credit: Freedom House, via Flickr, http://www.flickr.com/photos/syriafreedom2/6980815507/