Recent Challenges to US Security Interests in Northeast Asia

April 08, 2010

The past several months have been a trying time for US diplomatic efforts in Northeast Asia. China’s increasingly obstinate behavior, a lack of progress in the Six Party Talks and tension with Japan over alliance management issues all represent major challenges faced by the Obama Administration when dealing with security issues in the region. While these points of friction will remain for some time, it is important not to exaggerate their implications for US interests in the area.

The most salient challenge to the Obama Administration’s efforts in Northeast Asia has been Beijing’s surprisingly stiff and persistent response to the Taiwan arms sale announced by the administration in January. The strong sentiments created by the Taiwan issue on both sides could severely damage the relationship between the two countries, especially in light of the Google conundrum, disagreements over the environment and other high profile cases of tension. The challenge for the Obama administration is to determine whether Beijing’s response is business as usual or an indication that there is a sense in China that it has more leverage with the US than before.

Another challenge the administration is facing is the persistent failure to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program. The Six Party Talks broke down in 2008 leading North Korea to perform another “successful” underground nuclear test, and all parties have since failed to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table. To make matters more difficult, the deterioration of North Korea's conventional military deterrent caused by decades of economic mismanagement has raised the value of nuclear weapons for North Korea, reducing the likelihood that they will abandon them anytime soon.

Even the Japan-US alliance—arguably the US’ most consistent and important alliance in the region—has experienced great uncertainty since the historic election of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) last fall. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s call for an “equal” partnership and Tokyo’s reticence regarding the Marine Corps Air Station in Futenma has led to a crisis of confidence on both sides of the Pacific. A failure to resolve the Futenma issue, in particular, would send a dangerous signal to both allies and adversaries of a decline in the US-backed security system in the region.

These challenges may seem very troubling for US security interests in the region, but a closer look at the situation reveals a very different picture. China’s strident response to the arms sale, for example, has been tempered by Hu Jintao’s agreement to attend the global nuclear-security summit on April 12 and 13^th, and the threatened sanctions against US companies have yet to materialize. And while the North Korean nuclear program does pose serious nuclear proliferation concerns for the US, a legitimate nuclear weapons threat from the hermit kingdom remains a distant possibility. In fact, the growing superiority of the well-trained and well-funded South Korean forces vis-à-vis the North has allowed US forces to redeploy in a way that enhances their ability to stay flexible and support US interests in a wider area. Recent developments on the peninsula such as these even led South Korean President Lee Myung-bak to state that the sometimes-troubled South Korea-US alliance is “stronger than ever.”

The crucial Japan-US alliance, on the other hand, may face a period of uncertainty due to the DPJ's halting approach to foreign policy. Ultimately, though, Tokyo is unlikely to risk damaging the relationship that has been the foundation of peace and prosperity in the Northeast Asia for 50 years over what is really a domestic political issue, especially when its neighborhood is increasingly competitive and unpredictable. As a matter of fact, despite the dispute, both sides are already actively looking for ways to deepen the alliance to ensure it remains the cornerstone of peace and security in the region in the future.

Because of these continuing challenges, the Obama Administration must steer a course in Asia that prepares for all eventualities while promoting peace and stability. In line with this approach, the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) issued by the Defense Department in February outlines the need for US forces to enhance capabilities that would be both crucial and vulnerable in the case of conflict in the region, including communications and intelligence (C4ISR) capabilities. It goes on, though, to explain the need for the US to continue to work with allies to sustain peace and stability in the region and advocates increased transparency and open lines of communications to avoid misunderstandings that could lead to conflict. The QDR also recognizes the US must continue to engage with North Korea to prevent nuclear proliferation, even if the goal of getting them to abandon their weapons remains elusive.

Unfortunately, the diplomatic situation in Northeast Asia is not likely to improve in the near future. Disputes with China over a variety of issues will likely continue, keeping cooperation difficult. As for Japan, the upcoming election for the upper house of the legislature along with growing political problems for the new DPJ government will keep the domestic political situation precarious, reducing the probability of a quick resolution to the base relocation issue. In an area plagued by festering territorial disputes, historical antipathies and potential flashpoints, though, continued US presence acts as a safeguard against minor incidents spiraling out of control.