Mass-Casualty Attacks in Pakistan

September 12, 2011

Militant groups are tearing the fabric of Pakistani society, exacting a toll on innocent bystanders, sectarian foes, political leaders, security forces, and the economy. More than 7,000 Pakistanis have died in nearly 450 mass-casualty attacks, defined here as an assault by non-state actors killing five or more individuals in Pakistan, according to data collated from the Worldwide Incidents Tracking System of the National Counter-Terrorism Center (NTCT) and the South Asia Terrorism Portal. These attacks are calculated, vary by region, and correlate with triggering events, including elections and Pakistani military campaigns. Their frequency, scope, and magnitude have grown steadily over the last decade, and have risen markedly since the July 2007 military operation against the Red Mosque in Islamabad. Since then, mass-casualty attacks have occurred at an annual rate of approximately 90 incidents resulting in 1,500 deaths.  Only one other country -- Iraq -- has suffered more from mass casualty terrorism than Pakistan in the last five years.

Analysis of data reveals that different militant groups attack different aspects of Pakistani society. Violence is most concentrated along the Afghan border, in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, the locations of more than 250 attacks and 4,500 deaths from mass-casualty incidents. Death tolls are lower in the more populous eastern provinces: 860 have died in 67 incidents in Sindh; 963 have perished in 42 attacks in the Punjab; and in Islamabad and Rawalpindi - defined here as the National Capital Area - 29 incidents have killed 462. In Balochistan, 579 have died in 45 mass-casualty incidents, while 37 have died in three attacks in the area known within Pakistan as Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.  

These deadly assaults are calculated to settle scores, influence Pakistan's regional, foreign, and national security policies, as well as to affect domestic power struggles and election campaigns. Many attacks correlate with triggering events. Politically-inspired killings rise with upcoming electoral contests. Bloodletting in Sindh and the Punjab can be sectarian in nature, with clear political overtones. Shifting allegiances and military plans in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa or along the Afghan border can affect casualty counts. As a result, national-level trends rarely manifest uniformly across Pakistan. Because there are so many triggering events and grievances, it will be very difficult for Pakistani political leaders and military authorities to reverse these trends.

Attacks against security forces have increased more than 3,000 percent since 2005, now constituting 31 percent of all deaths from mass-casualty incidents in the last five years. Deaths from mass-casualty attacks against security-related targets are most common in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and FATA, where more than 60 percent of deaths from these attacks have occurred.  Fifteen percent of security-related deaths result from incidents in the Punjab, while only four percent of deaths from these attacks occur in Sindh, where violence is mostly directed at civil society. Although only 10 percent of deaths from attacks against security-related targets occur in the National Capital Area, fatalities from these attacks are particularly high, representing more than 50 percent of all deaths in Islamabad and Rawalpindi.

As would be expected, mass-casualty attacks against security-related targets, especially against Pakistan's armed forces, grow in conjunction with Pakistani military operations. Military campaigns in FATA or Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa are often accompanied by incidents in the Punjab and the National Capital Area, but outside of the warzone, these attacks have been rare in the absence of military campaigns. Spikes in mass-casualty attacks against security-related targets in the National Capital Area and the Punjab accompanied the 2008 Swat campaign, and the fall 2009 military campaign in the FATA. However, since an intense wave of violence in late 2009, mass-casualty attacks against security-related targets, especially against Pakistan's armed forces, have greatly diminished in the National Capital Area and the Punjab. In contrast, mass-casualty attacks against security forces in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and the FATA, as well as against police units, continue unabated.

Two attacks on security targets merit particular notice. The coordinated attack on Pakistan Naval Station Mehran in May 2011 followed the raid by U.S. Special Forces against Osama Bin Laden's residence in Abbottabad. The siege of Army General Headquarters in October 2009 followed the announcement of Pakistan Army plans to launch an operation in South Waziristan. Both attacks were characterized by commando-style operations and may have been assisted by insider knowledge.  The Pakistan Army may be reluctant to increase the scope and intensity of its operations against militants in part because it will again bear the brunt of a resulting spike in mass casualty attacks.    

A longer version of this piece and supporting data can be found in the Stimson publication, "Crisis in South Asia: Trends and Consequences."

Photo Credit: Associated Press, http://www.flickr.com/photos/kashmirglobal/5166832640/