Is Egypt Heading Off the Rails?

February 23, 2012

Egypt's revolution is clearly at a turning point, and the next four months could be its most critical period. The tanking economy, the deepening crisis with the United States, and the ruling generals' pitiful management of the country threaten to send Egypt off the rails. Presidential elections now slated for late May should mark an important milestone in the military's transition out of power. Yet, as the deadline approaches the generals appear to be employing tactics to foment instability.  Domestically, with the recent Port Said soccer riots, and internationally, with the American NGO crisis, they seem to be lashing out in a last ditch effort to either retain power or make Egypt nearly impossible to govern for whomever might follow.

With Egypt's foreign reserves dwindling, time is running out for the country to stabilize. An agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be a critical step toward stabilization, anchoring an economy that currently seems to be in a free fall.  Ideally, an IMF deal will attract much-needed aid from the Gulf and serve as an incentive for the return of foreign investment. 

I lived in Cairo as a student in the 1980s, and returned to Egypt last week - eight years after my last visit.  The ominous signs I witnessed suggest that Egypt's revolution, which is far from complete, faces its greatest challenges to date.

Upon arrival, I was immediately struck by a palpable sense of anger and despair in the streets.  Those familiar with Cairo are well-acquainted with the city's noisy chaos and disarray, as well as its crushing poverty.  But the mood this visit seemed intensely desperate.

When I visited Tahrir Square I expected to see tents and anti-regime graffiti.  I was astounded by the extent that Tahrir and its environs have deteriorated.  The mood there was not joyful or promising.  Rather, it felt almost menacing.  When I asked an Egyptian activist about this later, he explained that the composition of those demonstrating in Tahrir has changed.  "Those with jobs have gone back to work," he said.  "Now, it's the poor and unemployed."

My appointment with an Egyptian NGO was on Sharia' Muhammad Mahmoud, a street just off Tahrir where I lived as a student.  The area was unrecognizable from my trip eight years ago. Makeshift concrete barriers bisected the street, a reminder of the recent protests against the Interior Ministry that occurred just a couple blocks away. The American University in Cairo was shuttered. Its dorms and surrounding buildings were in total disrepair, pocked by broken windows and crumbling bricks. The deteriorating campus of the university, once a symbol of America's engagement with Egypt, is perhaps a fitting metaphor for the current crisis in US-Egyptian relations.

As I walked the several blocks, I felt a growing sense of disquiet. The Mubarak regime's legendary corruption is well-known, but the shameful state of disrepair that they left behind often goes unremarked.  The neighborhood's decrepit state served as a vivid indictment of the government's decades of neglect. The entire place was in shambles. Later, when I remarked on this to an Egyptian colleague, she noted, "It didn't happen overnight. Over thirty years, they [the Mubarak regime] let Egypt go to the dogs, with the U.S. and others complicit in the act." 

Egypt's growing impoverished class is yet another indicator of its deterioration. The estimated percentage of Egyptians living below the poverty line has ballooned from 15 percent in the 1980s to more than 40 percent today.  The number of working children is officially estimated by the government at 2.8 million, but the actual number is likely much higher.  Cairo's street kids were another sad reminder of the generations-long challenge that Egypt faces.

On this trip, the warmth and humor that is typical of Egyptians was muted, replaced by a dismal gloom as many wondered where the revolution is headed.   Every cab driver I met complained bitterly about the economy and the ability to make ends meet. Their deep sense of concern left little doubt that Egypt's deteriorating economy is clearly exacting a toll. 

More worrisome were reports of rising crime.  One of my contacts noted, "We are witnessing things that are completely new to Egypt: children are being kidnapped for ransom, the roads are not safe after dark, armed robberies occur with frequency."  As if to underscore the sense of danger, one cab driver told me he refuses to drive after dark.  When I asked why, he said, "Because I'm worried thieves will slit my throat and steal my cab."

The United States also has significant leadership role to play at this critical stage in Egypt's revolution.  Nearly everyone I spoke with during my visit, from youth activists to establishment figures, had the same message: the United States must not overreact to the generals' provocations.  Egypt's destiny hangs in the balance.  The generals' incendiary strategy of whipping up nationalist sentiment and stirring unrest risks unleashing forces that they cannot control.  Many fear that Egypt's next phase-a "hunger revolution"-could be far more violent and unpredictable, hurtling the country into the unknown.

The Obama administration has wisely worked to cool tensions, recently sending the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S. Army General Martin Dempsey to Cairo to address rising tensions directly with the Egyptian military leadership.  The administration's decision to maintain Egypt's current aid level for the 2013 budget further signals its commitment to help Egypt through its deepening crisis. Indeed, the U.S. government should do whatever it can to ensure the success of Egypt's revolution-among the most significant of the Arab uprisings-as the fate of the Arab Spring hangs in the balance.

Photo Credit: Voice of America, via Flickr, http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:VOA_Weeks_-_Cairo_protests,_November_20,_2011_-_03.jpg