Crisis in Syria Nears Breaking Point

June 18, 2012

As President Obama prepares to meet with his Russian counterpart today on the sidelines of the G-20 summit, sharply escalating violence in Syria could signal that the conflict is spiraling out control. Citing intensified fighting on both sides, the United Nations decided to suspend its observer mission, plunging the UN-sponsored Annan peace plan into further jeopardy. Although the Syrian government can still brutally repress an increasingly armed opposition, numerous indicators suggest the regime may be losing its grip on power. At the same time, while unconfirmed reports of increased funding and weapons flows to Syrian rebel groups indicate they may pose a greater threat to the regime, they remain unable to inflict a decisive blow. With Syria teetering on the abyss of all-out civil war, the Syrian crisis has reached a make-or-break moment for a diplomatic resolution.

Increasingly, it appears that the 16-month long uprising is morphing into a sectarian civil war with dangerous spillover into neighboring countries. Over the past month a spate of mass killings of Sunni civilians by Alawite paramilitary groups known as shabiha marks a distinct turning point in the crisis. In particular, the expanding scale and pace of sectarian massacres, notably the killing of more than 100 civilians including nearly 50 children last month in Houla, underscores the deepening sectarian cast to the violence.  More recently, the Syrian government claimed it had "cleansed" the Sunni village of al-Haffeh, located in a predominantly Alawite mountainous enclave, of "armed terrorists," the government's term for the armed opposition. A June 14^th suicide bombing that damaged a major Shiite shrine in southern Damascus may also have sectarian overtones.

Syria's violence has also spilled over its borders into neighboring Lebanon, which has witnessed the most significant outbreak of sectarian unrest in four years, encompassing both Beirut and the northern city of Tripoli. Lebanon's population is deeply divided over Syria, with most Sunnis supporting the Syrian opposition, while Shiites and Alawites favor the regime.  The issue has exacerbated pre-existing sectarian tensions, widening the rifts between these volatile segments of population. Adding to the tensions, a group of Lebanese Shiite pilgrims were abducted in northern Syria last month, prompting violent protests in Beirut's Shiite southern suburbs. The hostages have yet to be returned to Lebanon, and has raised fears of greater unrest should they be killed.

The Syrian government continues to rely on brutal tactics to repress its opponents. Government forces have renewed heavy shelling of Homs, considered the Syrian uprising's epicenter. While the opposition has long accused the government of using helicopter gunships, United Nations monitors recently confirmed the use of helicopters in government operations, marking another escalation in the regime's tactics. At the same time, the use of helicopters, as well as an increased reliance on the shabiha may be a sign of government weakness.  These tactics could suggest that the regime is less able to rely on ground forces which have been stretched increasingly thin and reportedly plagued by an increase in desertions and defections.

Aside from this apparent fraying of government forces, other key indicators suggest the regime's hold on power may be diminishing significantly.  Rebel groups have reportedly had greater success in denying the regime control over significant swathes of territory across Syria - another reason the government may be forced to rely more on helicopters. The regime is now embroiled in fierce battles in several regions across the country, including in eastern Syria that, until recently, had been relatively quiet. 

Equally notable, violence has moved beyond Damascus's outer suburbs to more close-in neighborhoods near the city's center. In addition, Damascene merchants-formerly supporters of the regime-recently launched a week-long strike to protest the regime's involvement in the Houla massacre.  While the business elite have grumbled quietly about the regime for months, the strike is the first overt and significant indicator of their waning support. If confirmed, recent reports of a business strike in Aleppo would spell a further erosion of regime control. Economic sanctions have added to the sense of desperation, including a recent report alleging that the Syrian government has resorted to printing money in order to pay public sector salaries and other expenses. 

With all this, the Syrian conflict may have reached its most opportune moment for diplomacy.  While Russia, a key supporter of the Syrian regime, has vacillated between statements of displeasure and support for the regime, Moscow may well be viewing developments inside Syria with mounting concern. Russia's decision to send two ships to the Syrian port of Tartus signals Moscow's deepening anxiety over the deteriorating security situation. Syria's descent into a sectarian civil war would be inimical to Russian interests.  Moscow would lose its last significant ally in the Arab world, along with billions of dollars in military and business investments.  Perhaps more alarming for Moscow, the opening of a Sunni jihadist battleground in the Levant could result in significant blowback among its own jihadist opposition elements, constituting a domestic security threat for Russia.

Syria will no doubt figure prominently in President Obama's talks with Russian President Putin.  The United States and Russia remain at odds on Syria, but both sides share an interest in preventing Syria's unraveling. Both leaders should seize on this critical moment in the Syrian crisis to forge a diplomatic solution. A proposal to hold an international conference on Syria in Geneva at the end of this month appears to be gaining momentum and could serve as the venue for building broad-based international consensus on Syria.  Syria's conflict has reached a decisive moment of reckoning.  As Syria verges on the brink of a wide scale civil war or regime collapse, the timing for a concerted diplomatic effort to force Assad to step aside is now-before Syria passes a point of no return. 

Photo Credit: JOSEPH EID/AFP/GettyImages via Flickr, http://www.flickr.com/photos/syriafreedom/7161216492/