Engaging Iran in the Aftermath of IAEA Report

November 08, 2011

The latest report on Iran's nuclear activities, released on November 8^th by the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reaffirms in stunning detail that Tehran is developing the technical expertise and physical capabilities necessary to build nuclear warheads for missiles.  While carefully phrased, the report, which will shortly be considered by the IAEA's 35-member board of governors, makes clear that many of the well-documented activities appear to violate both Iran's obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and demands for the cessation of such activities posed in numerous UN Security Council resolutions.  Among other options, the Board of Governors can either direct the IAEA Secretariat to continue to discuss the issues raised by the report with Iran, or refer the matter to the Security Council.  In the latter case, the UN could impose additional measures intended to compel Iran to terminate its illegal activities and to cooperate with the IAEA to reassure the international community that it does not intend to acquire nuclear weapons.

As contents of the report began to leak in recent weeks, many in Israel and the US called for military action to prevent Iran from completing its weapon program.   Others have said that the United States should impose broad-based economic and financial sanctions that would preclude virtually any legitimate business dealings with Iran.   The arguments for and against these options have been well-rehearsed; neither choice would be wise, nor accomplish the goal of preventing a nuclear-armed Iran.

• A military strike would isolate the US and Israel from virtually all other nations, unite Iranians and the rest of the Muslim world behind Iran's leaders, have adverse effects on the global economy, and, most importantly, risk involving this nation in yet another long and costly war in the Middle East.
• At the same time, broad-based sanctions, like the legislation now pending in the House of Representatives, to bar individuals and entities that do business with the Central Bank of Iran from doing business in the United States, would not only break the coalition now supporting US efforts to end Iran's nuclear program, but also its main effect would be to make life difficult for ordinary Iranians -- while having virtually no effect on the individuals that make decisions on the nuclear program.

So, what should be done?

First, we should take a collective deep breath.  The IAEA report does not suggest that Iran now has nuclear weapons.  According to the experts, including official US and Israeli intelligence estimates, as well as the authoritative Institute for Science and International Security, Iran is unlikely to be able to acquire them for at least one or two more years.  Indeed, it is not at all clear whether or not Iranian leaders have decided to take the fateful step of crossing over from a weapons' potential to actually building an arsenal.  It would be a decision fraught with peril.  One thing the IAEA report makes clear is that the international community knows a great deal about Iran's nuclear program; it would be unlikely that Tehran could cross the threshold covertly.  During this visible transition, Iran would face not only the danger of military strikes by a coalition of nations, but also virtual isolation from the rest of the world.  After stating for decades that its nuclear program was intended solely for peaceful purposes, any overt move to build weapons would end the diplomatic cover that has enabled nations like China to both limit UN sanctions and to interpret those that do pass as narrowly as possible.  In many ways, Iran is better off having the potential to become a nuclear weapons state than a nation clearly sprinting to build an arsenal.

Instead of lashing out broadly in panic, the US and its allies should use the IAEA report to strengthen their continuing efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring the materials and specialized equipment it needs to build nuclear weapons and to modernize its armed forces - efforts that have been fairly successful over the past year.   They should also build on the report to further isolate and punish those individuals responsible for Iran's policies and actions through targeted sanctions - both multilateral sanctions through the United Nations and sanctions individually imposed by the United States and allied nations.  These efforts, too, have had some success during the past year and only recently were shown to be contributing to intensifying conflicts among Iran's ruling elites.   In support of this policy, the US and its allies should work to cause the IAEA Governors to refer the latest report to the UN Security Council and then work in that body to strengthen and gain greater adherence to sanctions focused on Iran's leaders, especially those in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, intelligence organizations, armed forces, and scientific and academic establishments related to the nuclear enterprise.

And, finally, the US should revitalize its efforts to engage Iran diplomatically, just as we successfully pursued both containment and negotiations vis-a-vis China in the 1950s and 1960s, and vis-a-vis the USSR during the Cold War.  In recent months, both Russian and Iranian spokesmen have indicated a willingness to reopen negotiations that could limit Iran's stock of 20 percent enriched uranium - the aspect of its program that most troubles other nations.  While the outline of the agreement that was tabled would be insufficient to reassure the international community, the terms presented certainly provided a sufficient basis for beginning a dialogue. 

The US also should be willing to engage Iran on additional issues, including Afghanistan, the drug trade, and human rights.  While Iran's leadership may be in too much disarray to discuss these issues seriously, an expressed willingness by the United States to talk can only strengthen our ability to maintain the international united front against an Iranian nuclear bomb.

Photo Credit: By Dean Calma for IAEA, http://www.flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/6163780354/