Spotlight Archives
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Space: A Code of Conduct
October 6, 2008
Satellites are indispensable and vulnerable. Satellites perform essential military functions. They provide early warning of missile launches and offensive military preparations. They provide intelligence to monitor compliance with treaties, or the emergence of new security challenges. The challenge we face is how to best assure that US satellites will remain available to advance US national and economic security. READ MORE »
"Leadership vacuum" in Japan - What Does it Mean?
October 3, 2008
Japanese prime minister Taro Aso made his debut to international scene when he delivered a speech at UN General Assembly on September 25. While his speech clearly demonstrated his determination to keep Japan engaged in international events, political developments within Japan makes whether he can accomplish that remains highly uncertain. READ MORE »
Nuclear Proliferation: Avoiding a Pandemic
September 29, 2008
There is serious risk that the international agreements and processes that have kept the number of nations armed with nuclear weapons fairly low are breaking down. Unless strong actions are taken during the first 18 months of the administration, we could see a world of twenty or even thirty nuclear-armed states by the 2020s. READ MORE »
Climate Security: Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Fire?
September 26, 2008
Growing recognition of the security threats presented by global warming gives policy makers powerful reason to enact effective greenhouse mitigation measures. Excessive focus on climate security, however, risks deforming governments’ policy responses, driving them to emphasize military means to meet climate challenges which are not inherently a military problem. READ MORE »
Iraq: New Goals, No Illusions
September 22, 2008
It is time to recalibrate America’s equities and engagement in Iraq, and to focus on new goals that bring this relationship into a more sustainable framework. After focusing almost exclusively on security and the hand-off to reconstituted Iraqi security forces, it is time to attend to the broader political aspects of the relationship. READ MORE »
Findings from Cross-Regional Workshop on Natural Resources
September 18, 2008
As natural resources are becoming increasingly scarce, most countries are suffering from a kind of supply-demand disequilibrium. Policies for development should take on a more integrative approach, and realize that neither market-driven nor security-oriented approaches to natural resource management are viable in the long term. READ MORE »
The Stability of the Gulf is Now a Global Responsibility
September 15, 2008
The Gulf states were once accused of strategic laziness because they subcontracted their security to the US. Today they shrewdly take advantage of the new distribution of global power to cultivate new alliances. And, flush with cash and mindful of their new global standing, they now embrace the notion that the security of their neighbourhood is an international responsibility. READ MORE »
Preventing Nuclear Terrorism Seven Years After 9/11
September 11, 2008
US Government efforts to prevent terrorist acquisition and use of a nuclear weapon may be characterized as a four-link chain—prevention, detection/interdiction, integration, and sustainment. The failure of just one link could have catastrophic consequences on US and global security. Yet seven years after 9/11, the US response remains inadequate. READ MORE »
Peacekeeping Dues and Don’ts: A Checklist
September 9, 2008
While America can act on its own in many matters of peace and security, even a superpower has finite resources as the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan have demonstrated. The next administration must answer serious questions of resource allocation regarding peace and stability operations and make it clear that it supports an effective UN. READ MORE »
Iraq’s Children: From Insurgents to Civilians?
September 4, 2008
Since 2006, Iraqi youth have played an increasingly active role in various Iraqi insurgent groups. Following the US troop surge in 2007, the number of youth detained in Iraqi facilities controlled by the Multi-National Forces has skyrocketed some 800 percent. With nearly half of Iraq’s population under 18 years of age, the military cannot afford to alienate its young detainees. READ MORE »
The New Foreign Menace? Sovereign Wealth Funds and US National Security
September 2, 2008
The emergence of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) as global financial heavyweights investing in American assets has raised concerns in Congress about the potential threats to US national security. Yet there is no evidence that the governments that have SWFs ntend to use that power to threaten US national security and new rules are emerging to alleviate security concerns. READ MORE »
The Georgian Conflict: More than a US-Russia Showdown
August 28, 2008
Russia’s recent recognition of South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence furthers debate about disputed territories. There are no easy or win-win solutions to the complex problems of minority enclaves fighting for self-determination. The focus often shifts from the desires of the people to the interests of the most powerful stakeholders. READ MORE »
Facing Reality: A New Approach in Afghanistan
August 25, 2008
The international community does not face imminent failure in Afghanistan. It has already failed. Refusal to acknowledge this reality will take matters from bad to worse. Only a new dispensation that is agreed to by all stakeholders, in Afghanistan and outside, can hope to vouchsafe a stable and peaceful Afghanistan. READ MORE »
Turning Point: Russia and the West
August 21, 2008
The current crisis in Georgia can be resolved in a way that reflects all parties’ interests and shapes Western-Russian relations for years to come. However, transforming this objective into reality requires a positive approach which seriously recognizes Russian interests while emphasizing the benefits of a path of cooperation and mutual restraint. READ MORE »
Faits Accompli, Complicity, and Nuclear Nonproliferation
August 18, 2008
The Bush administration’s civilian nuclear deal with India is set to present the world with yet another fait accompli. If the Nuclear Suppliers Group approves the deal, key members of the global non-proliferation regime will become complicit in its weakening. READ MORE »
ICC Indictment of Sudan's al-Bashir Will Test Court's Relevancy
August 14, 2008
Can a sitting head of state of an oil-rich country be held to account for genocide? On August 18th, judges at the International Criminal Court will reconvene to review a prosecutor’s recommendation to indict Sudan’s Omar al-Bashir for crimes in Darfur amid a torrent of complaints from African and Middle Eastern leaders. READ MORE »
Fix the Foreign Police Training Diaspora
August 12, 2008
A 35-year-old prohibition on police training overseas has resulted in a patchwork of programs to carry out an increasingly vital activity for US security today. It should be reconsidered in the context of building a broader plan to strengthen the rule of law in weak states. READ MORE »
French Foreign, Defense, and National Security Policy: New Initiatives?
August 9, 2008
Commissioned by French President Nicolas Sarkozy, two new White Papers—one on defense and national security policy, the other on foreign affairs—herald major change in France’s strategic objectives and tools for implementing its policies. READ MORE »
Regional Implications of Thai Political Instability
August 5, 2008
Fallout from the 2006 coup that ousted PM Thaksin Shinawatra continues to roil Thai politics. Domestic political instability and rising nationalist sentiment are beginning to affect regional relations, most recently demonstrated by a tense border standoff with Cambodia. The situation provides ASEAN with an opportunity for constructive engagement. READ MORE »
Why “Do Something” is Not a Strategy
July 31, 2008
Zimbabwe’s recent political violence generated calls for the world leaders to “do something” to protect targeted civilians. Such appeals, however, lack clarity, resources and an underlying strategy. Three key areas must be addressed to enhance the world’s ability to prevent and halt the violence seen in Zimbabwe and elsewhere. >> READ MORE »
Should Pakistan Do More or the US Demand Less?
July 28, 2008
There is a growing feeling in Pakistan that US actions are exacerbating instability in the country. At a recent Stimson-organized round table in the region, prominent Pakistanis voiced their criticism of what they see as America’s simplistic understanding of the relationship between politics and conflict in their country. >> READ MORE »
The Global Partnership goes Global
July 25, 2008
Earlier this month, G-8 leaders decided to expand the operations of the Global Partnership to address proliferation challenges worldwide. Packaging assistance to meet both donor and recipient states’ objectives can serve to create a virtuous circle. However, traditional development assistance must be effectively integrated with the technical assistance requisite to achieve nonproliferation goals. READ MORE »
Negotiating Security Arrangements with Iraq: Easier Said than Done
July 18, 2008
The Bush Administration is unable to put in place long-term security arrangements in Iraq this year. It now seeks a statement of principles and a short term agreement about the US military presence in Iraq. Prime Minister Maliki was unable to maneuver between the popular demand for an end to occupation, and the reality of continued reliance on US security forces. READ MORE »
Japan Barely Afloat in the East China Sea
July 14, 2008
Last month, Japan and China announced a plan to begin limited joint development of gas fields in the East China Sea. The agreement, while good on paper, does little to address the underlying controversy. Issues of sovereignty, islands, and Taiwan still make the East China Sea prone to tempests of conflict READ MORE »
Restoring America's International Reputation
July 10, 2008
In early 2008, fierce anti-Americanism of recent years began showing signs of tapering off. The election of a new US President may not be enough in and of itself to radically improve foreign public perception of the US. The next administration will have to undertake a concerted, long-term effort to restore America’s image abroad. READ MORE »
Protect Satellites Against Harmful Interference
July 7, 2008
The longstanding impasse over how or even whether to pursue an international agreement to enhance space security will be handed off to the new presidential administration. A code of conduct for responsible spacefaring nations could be useful, if it includes a pledge not to interfere with space objects. >> READ MORE »
Strengthening Civilian Capacity and DOD's Expanded Assistance Portfolio
July 1, 2008
DOD's expanded assistance portfolio, particularly its new authorities in security assistance and reconstruction and stabilization pose considerable consequences for U.S. foreign policy and national security. Furthermore, these authorities weaken the State Department and USAID, and move the military outside its core competencies. READ MORE »
The Endless Drought: Water Conflict in the Era of Climate Change
June 20, 2008
Lake Chad shrank by over ninety percent in the last fifty years. The ensuing loss of livelihoods is pressuring local populations, and there are currently an estimated thirty armed groups in the area. How should conflict over shared water resources be dealt with in the era of climate change? READ MORE »
Al Qaeda’s Growing Use of the Internet: Should We Be Concerned?
June 18, 2008
As an agile and decentralized network, Al Qaeda is becoming increasingly tech-savvy in order to reach out to new recruits. The internet’s growing role will likely shape al Qaeda as an organization and determine its viability as a continuing threat. READ MORE »
How safe and secure are Pakistan’s nuclear weapons?
June 13, 2008
How safe and secure are Pakistan’s nuclear weapons? Recent turbulence in the country leaves ample room for concern. Pakistanis may be willing to accept some help from the United States. In addition, we should be on the watch for a few scenarios that are particularly worrying. READ MORE »
Oil, Politics, and Economics: Kuwait's Balancing Act
June 10, 2008
Kuwait’s oil wealth and small population buy it great advantages, but it is engaged in a long political dispute over resources. Will its new government be able to find common ground politically to enable the country to evolve beyond an oil-based economy and into a global financial and commercial center? READ MORE »
The outcomes of delivering humanitarian assistance by force remain unpredictable, but that doesn’t mean that the international community can’t evolve doctrines to deal specifically with natural disasters and health crises made worse by governance failures. >> READ MORE »
An Unsettled Foundation? Labor in the UAE
May 29, 2008
The recent labor riots in the UAE were the largest in the country’s history. These incidents illustrate the challenge between enacting corporate-friendly government policies and managing a massive underpaid and underfed work force and its threat to economic growth potential and stability. READ MORE »
Sleiman goes to Baabda. Is Lebanon back from the brink?
May 27, 2008
The election of Army Commander General Michel Sleiman as president of Lebanon opens an uncertain chapter in its tumultuous history. But a sense of optimism exudes from normal Lebanese citizens who only two weeks ago witnessed the worst communal violence since 1990. Much will hinge on Sleiman's ability to play a balancing role between the various groups, transcend factional politics and affirm the authority of the state. READ MORE »
Natural Hazards and Homeland Security: An Expectation to Protect?
May 23, 2008
After the devastating floods in the United Kingdom during the summer of 2007, the Pitt Review was commissioned to explore the government’s response. The Review’s Interim Report provides a blueprint for mitigating the consequences of large-scale natural disasters. The Review and the Hurricane Katrina reviews point to an emerging “expectation to protect” against all hazards. READ MORE »
A New Strategy to Prevent Terrorist Acquisition of the Bomb: Clear, Hold, Build
May 19, 2008
The nonproliferation community in Washington would do well to learn the hard fought lessons of the United States military—near-term security gains are indispensable, but ultimately transitory without the sustained support of an engaged and committed target community. READ MORE »
Ten years after the 1998 tests, India has plans for a deterrent it deems worthy of a major power, which might entail further tests to certify thermonuclear weapon designs. If India tests again, Pakistan is likely to do so as well. This spells trouble for the CTBT as well as the FMCT. >> READ MORE »
Burma's Suffering: Will a Horrific Tragedy Become a Change-Forcing Event?
May 9, 2008
Tragedies brought about by natural disasters sometimes become powerful forces for change in countries marked by political strife. The massive cyclone that hit Burma on May 3 could bring down the repressive military regime that has brutalized and misgoverned one of the world’s poorest countries for almost two decades. READ MORE »
The G8 will discuss the global food crisis in June, but reducing carbon emissions while increasing food security will not be easy. An International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development report has made some candid policy recommendations. You can read the entire 112-page report, or follow the chicken... >> READ MORE »
The U.S. has made freedom of religion a foreign policy objective. “Countries of Particular Concern" are identified based upon their record of persecution and are subjected to a range of policies, from private criticism to sanctions. READ MORE »
Taiwan: George Bush meet Abba Eban
April 21, 2008
Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan’s new leader, is committed to lowering tensions with Beijing, a long-standing U.S. objective. But his success requires strong domestic consensus, which, in turn, depends on open American support. Inviting Ma to Washington before his inauguration would signify such critical backing. Instead, President Bush seems determined to miss this unique opportunity to promote U.S. interests. >> READ MORE »
Confucius Institutes and Chinese Soft Power in Southeast Asia
April 18, 2008
Promoting the “good” parts of Chinese culture and history softens the blow of realpolitik decisions. To use the metaphor suggested by Randall Peerenboom, Chinese soft power actions are an effort to downplay the image of China as a fire breathing dragon, and promote that of China as a cute, cuddly panda. READ MORE »
Pharmaceutical Terrorism—The Bane of Biotech
April 9, 2008
The development of pharmaceuticals with ingredients that can be used in biological weapons is a microcosm of the complexities now challenging US and international security. Despite the benefits of biotech innovation, the specter of nefarious diversion of this technology is both clear and present. READ MORE »
The US-Japan alliance—truly “global” partners
April 3, 2008
The United States and Japan can and should work more closely together in the areas beyond narrowly-defined defense cooperation. Despite the upcoming intense political seasons in two capitals, Tokyo and Washington should continue to engage in a dialogue on the ways to expand the scope and increase the depth of the US-Japan partnership. >> READ MORE »
Developing Security in the Caribbean
March 31, 2008
United Nations Security Council Resolution 1540 provides a unique opportunity for a win-win outcome – meeting the North’s nonproliferation demands while also addressing some of the South’s dire development needs. A recent conference in Santo Domingo confirmed this connection. READ MORE »
Supplemental Appropriations: The Pentagon’s Ticket to Unchecked Spending
March 27, 2008
The Pentagon has used supplemental appropriations to fund the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and the “Global War on Terror” for six years. This practice has limited Congressional oversight of the defense budget; caused the Pentagon’s strategic planning process to breakdown, and reduced budget transparency. READ MORE »
After the ASAT Tests
March 24, 2008
Destructive ASAT tests are the most visible aspects of larger, space warfare programs that proceed beyond plain view. Each test acts as a prod: Nations that feel most threatened by ASAT capabilities will accelerate hedging strategies when their essential satellites are placed at risk. READ MORE »
Piracy Trends in Southeast Asia and Africa
March 20, 2008
Africa is emerging as a hotspot for piracy. Southeast Asia, previously the most notorious zone for piracy, has seen a steady decrease in attacks since 2003. How can these divergent trends be explained? Can Southeast Asia serve as a model for Africa to combat piracy? >> READ MORE »
New Competition for the Resources of the Mekong Basin
March 17, 2008
The resources of the Mekong Basin are increasingly the source of regional and international competition. Facing intense criticism over many controversial projects, especially hydropower, multilateral development banks have begun to distance themselves. This has provided an opportunity for less discerning parties to increase involvement, often to the detriment of local environments and rural populations. READ MORE »
Reversing the Slide in Relations with Russia
March 14, 2008
There are too many new problems in the world to be re-fighting the Cold War. If the next US administration has any strategic foresight, it will work with the NATO allies to define a new security arrangement for Europe, one which includes Russia as a full partner, rather than pushing it back into enmity with the West. READ MORE »
To The Brink: Indian Decision-Making and the 2001-2002 Standoff
March 10, 2008
Pakistan is grappling with multiple crises simultaneously, yet one source of instability in South Asia, Kashmir, is hardly in the news. Islamabad and New Delhi, fortunately, share an interest in avoiding another downturn in bilateral relations. Only six years ago, however, India and Pakistan nearly went to war over Kashmir. >> READ MORE »
The DRC: Bush's Missed Opportunity in Africa
March 7, 2008
While in Africa recently, President Bush was moved by memorials to the Rwandan genocide and urged world leaders to resolve the Darfur crisis. The humanitarian calamity in neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo, however, is even more deserving of international attention. READ MORE »
Who Owns Transnational Water?
March 5, 2008
The 20th century paradigm of water being a “matter of sovereignty” has informed past conflicts over transnational water resources in the Middle East. Integrated water resource management (IWRM) is changing the way states interact over shared water, but does it mean a new paradigm is emerging? >> READ MORE »
The Power of the Ballot: Political Transition in Pakistan
February 28, 2008
Pakistan’s parliamentary elections on February 18th provided observers with many surprises. As a new government is formed, it is certain that the Pakistan’s trajectory will change, but the results of this election signal a positive transition towards democracy. READ MORE »
Energy Department Links to Iranian Nukes Salacious… but Untrue
February 25, 2008
The GAO report on the Initiatives for Proliferation Prevention program paints an incomplete picture, and although the implication that America is aiding and abetting the Iranian nuclear program is sensational, it lacks the benefit of being factual. READ MORE »
Bush's ASAT Test
February 21, 2008
Difficult national security decisions involve hard trade-offs between benefit and risk. On the merits, the Bush administration’s decision about what to do with a failing satellite isn’t difficult. In this case, great harm can come from using this satellite for target practice, and there is relatively little risk in allowing the satellite to burn up in the atmosphere, with some charred remnants falling to Earth. Why, then, has the administration decided to carry out the first U.S. destructive anti-satellite or ASAT test since 1985? READ MORE »
Facing the truth about what's tearing Chad apart
February 19, 2008
President Bush is on an African trip trying to focus on the continent’s successes, but recent news out of Chad, Kenya and Darfur has highlighted chaos and ethnic cleansing. Fueling these explosive events are “winner take all” political outcomes that stoke mutual recrimination and instability. READ MORE »
On February 12, the governments of Russia and China tabled a draft treaty banning space weapons in the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. This initiative will gain greater support as a result of the Bush administrations plans, revealed two days later, to demolish a failing intelligence satellite with a sea-based missile. The proposed draft treaty by Russia and China as well as the stated rationale for the upcoming Pentagon test are not credible. READ MORE »
Indian Muslims – Beleaguered and Alienated
February 11, 2008
The Muslim minority in India is growing alienated from the Indian state. It suffers physical violence and political and cultural hostility. Muslim leaders and security officials are increasingly concerned that some Muslims will become radicalized. By mistreating and marginalizing a loyal minority, anti-Muslim ideologues may be creating the security threats that they claim to defend against. READ MORE »
A New Direction for France’s Security and Foreign Policy
February 6, 2008
France is in the midst of a major debate over national security that is likely to affect its defense posture for decades to come. Indeed, coming on the heels of the professionalization of the French military is an even more ambitious enterprise looking holistically at France’s national security needs, capabilities and architecture. READ MORE »
The International Criminal Court: Time for a US Reassessment
February 1, 2008
As the US presidential campaign heats up, both political parties advocate new courses. On issues from the Iraq war to climate change, candidates are calling for change and a restoration of the US position in the world. One issue ripe for reassessment is the International Criminal Court (ICC). READ MORE »
China, Vietnam, and the Rich Resources of the Gulf of Tonkin
January 29, 2008
An extraordinary angry demonstration outside China’s embassy in Hanoi in early December 2007 punctured a carefully cultivated aura of warming bilateral relations. The demonstration responded to Beijing’s latest move in a high stakes dispute with Vietnam and other Southeast Asian neighbors over the oil and gas resources of the South China Sea. READ MORE »
Washington – still in search of a coherent Iran policy
January 24, 2008
During his recent trip to the Middle East, President Bush went out of his way to demonstrate that his policy toward Iran has not changed, in spite of the December National Intelligence Estimate. For the Administration, Iran remains a threat to regional security with or without nukes. The controversial estimate is only one measure of a policy that still falls short. READ MORE »
The Limits of Zero: How the Rush to Abolition May Not Make Us More Secure
January 22, 2008
While a reinvigorated debate over the complete elimination of nuclear weapons is healthy, we should not be deluded into believing that the policies of the next administration will get us any closer to zero than those of the current administration—at least, not without a nuanced recognition of the political, bureaucratic, and strategic hurdles required to do so. READ MORE »
Gov 2.0: Understanding Official Blogging
January 17, 2008
Dana Perino, Josh Bolten, Stephen Hadley, and Ed Gillespie blogged the president’s trip to the Middle East this week. It’s the first White House blog, but yet another example of key players in the government getting behind the keyboard. Their success is dependent on whether or not the Administration can adapt to this new phase of the information revolution. READ MORE »
Shifting Political Currents in Taiwan
January 15, 2008
The Kuomintang's blowout victory in legislative elections foreshadows significant transformation of Taiwan politics. But KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou has wisely cautioned against overconfidence in the March election, as the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party seeks to reshape its message-and image-under DPP presidential contender and new chairman, Frank Hsieh. READ MORE »
Zimbabwe - the Prospects and Pitfalls of Sanctions
January 11, 2008
Zimbabwe is in the midst of a political, economic and humanitarian crisis and has become increasingly isolated from the rest of the world. Octogenarian President Robert Mugabe, has taken the country from being the bread basket of southern Africa to the verge of state failure. But in response the West has few policy instruments and the ones which are available are often double edged. READ MORE »
Tough Days Ahead for Pakistan and the U.S.
January 3, 2008
It was unwise for the Bush administration to attempt to midwife a partnership agreement between Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto. A core assumption behind this effort – that Musharraf remains essential in any transition strategy for Pakistan’s future – is mistaken. The best that can be said for the period ahead is that it will hasten his departure. READ MORE »
A Year of Challenges, A Year of Solutions
December 26, 2007
Please join us in reflecting on the past year – full of both enduring challenges and continued progress – by looking at some past issues of our Spotlight feature. Please click to see our archive. Best wishes for 2008! READ MORE »
The US has extensively improved the accuracy and timeliness of its natural disaster prediction capabilities. Yet much work still needs to be done to translate these predictions into meaningful protective action strategies based on improved public communications and individual and community responses. >> READ MORE »
US-Japan Splits in North Korean Engagement
December 14, 2007
US-Japan relations face tough challenges ahead as North Korea prepares to declare its nuclear activities and materials. Japan finds difficulties accepting United States promises to remove North Korea from the list of terrorism-sponsoring countries for denuclearization. This could make a long and uncertain negotiation process much more complicated. >> READ MORE »
Post-Conflict Policing and Rule of Law: The Case for UN Reform
December 10, 2007
Announcing the UK’s global priorities last month, Prime Minister Gordon Brown called for creation of an international “standby civilian force including police and judiciary who can be deployed to rebuild civic societies.” A smart way to implement Mr. Brown’s vision would be to endow the UN with capacity it needs to carry out increasingly ambitious mandates. >> READ MORE »
Iran’s Nuclear Program: Does new intelligence mean a new policy?
December 5, 2007
The drama of the new National Intelligence Estimate judgment that Iran “halted its nuclear weapons program” has generated expectations that US policy will now need to shed its most coercive components. But the NIE does not solve all mysteries about Iran’s intentions, and the policy dilemma remains acute. READ MORE »
The Central Asian Conundrum
December 3, 2007
While the U.S. focuses on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, there are small but growing signs that Central Asian nations are exercising sovereignty and independent thinking. Although they lie within Russia’s traditional sphere of influence, they are establishing bi-lateral connections that lie outside their traditional relationships. READ MORE »
Pakistan’s Brighter Future: The View from the Ground
November 26, 2007
If we understand and support what the people of Pakistan are demanding, we may salvage some goodwill. Most Pakistanis assume that the Musharraf era is coming to an end, and that there will be a change that will have to reflect the political re-empowerment of Pakistani society. READ MORE »
Pakistan With or Without Musharraf
November 20, 2007
What would be worse for Pakistan and the United States: If Musharraf stays or if he goes? The political trends lines within Pakistan are likely to grow worse the longer Musharraf remains in any position of leadership. READ MORE »
North Korean Rollback?
November 14, 2007
The time is ripe for a reassessment of the multiple tools that the U.S. might bring to bear to solve the tough proliferation cases. The cooperative nonproliferation programs resident at the Departments of Energy, Defense and State confer a viable suite of tools to address the North Korean situation. READ MORE »
Engaging Syria: Redefining Syria's Role in the Middle East
November 8, 2007
The evolution of Syria from US ally to enemy was at once unexpected and inevitable. Thanks to strategic policy choices and its geographic location, Syria is enmeshed in all the conflicts in the Middle East. While Syria is not the ultimate threat to either the region or US interests, it has proven intransigent and belligerent on a number of issues of great importance to the international community. READ MORE »
“Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR): The New Dot-Com Bubble?”
November 5, 2007
The “dot-com” boom and bust of the 1990s taught investors to look past short-term gains in the interest of building long-term, sustainable investments. This lesson has added value when applied to the analysis of future Cooperative Nonproliferation programs. The success of these programs depends on first building supportive constituencies to ensure an enduring return on investment. more>> READ MORE »
Cultivating a Culture of Preparedness in the United States
November 1, 2007
To fully prepare for future disasters, the United States must develop a culture of preparedness in which each citizen takes an active role in preparing for and responding to emergency incidents. The Federal Government can foster the development of this culture by instituting a core set of policies and initiatives. more >> READ MORE »
Applying to the UN “in the name of ‘Taiwan’”
October 30, 2007
In Taiwan, "playing politics" can sometimes be akin to playing with fire. The proposed referendum on applying for membership in the United Nations "in the name of 'Taiwan'" is a case in point. READ MORE »
Economic Reform Efforts in Egypt and Syria: Contributions to Regional Stability?
October 25, 2007
Over the last two years Egypt and Syria have undergone significant economic reform, as the prospect of political instability has become a catalyst for necessary changes. Their leaderships are no longer able to disregard the pressing need for faster growth, diminished poverty, and higher standards of living. READ MORE »
Where Have You Gone, Paul Nitze?
October 23, 2007
In the early years of the Cold War, Paul Nitze advocated for the mobilization of the US government and society through bipartisan political processes to support the new strategy of containment. Today, the absence of bipartisan agreement is the missing piece of our post-September 11th security strategy. READ MORE »
Demography and Conflict: How are they connected?
October 18, 2007
Demographic analysis is providing new insight into which societies and regions are at most risk of conflict. Governments can make smart interventions, knowing that they will over time reduce the youthfulness of age structures, which tends to lower the risk of civil conflict. Demographic change, however, happens slowly and is rarely the sole determinant of conflict. READ MORE »
Signs of Progress in Improving UN Peacekeeper Accountability
October 15, 2007
Erosion of trust in peacekeepers undercuts the UN’s ability to generate peace and improve people’s lives. Distressing accounts of sexual abuse committed by peacekeepers have cast a shadow over the UN’s credibility, but the organization deserves credit for demonstrating a real commitment to stopping such offenses. READ MORE »
In recent conversations in the lower Mekong subregion of Southeast Asia – Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam – both officials and nongovernmental experts indicated that China’s fast-growing power and regional influence headed their list of long term security concerns. READ MORE »
Sputnik + 50 Years: Still Searching for Space Security
October 9, 2007
A code of conduct for responsible space-faring nations received an important endorsement on September 27, 2007 from General Kevin P. Chilton, whom the Senate recently confirmed as the next Commander of U.S. Strategic Command. The time has now come to begin discussions on the code’s particulars. READ MORE »
Six-Party Agreement and the North-South Summit: An Opening for Korea?
October 5, 2007
This week’s Six-Party “Second Phase” agreement and North-South Eight-Point Agreement create considerable hope for the future of the Korean Peninsula. Faithful implementation, of course, will be the key to actual progress, and nothing is guaranteed. But the chances for consolidating peace and stability may be better than ever before. READ MORE »
Japan’s New Prime Minister and Shifting Priorities: Washington Need Not Worry
October 3, 2007
On September 25, 2007, Yasuo Fukuda became Prime Minister of Japan. His first policy speech outlined a shift in domestic priorities, but he pledged a firm commitment to the US-Japan alliance. He faces an intense challenge from opposition members in the Diet on Japanese deployments overseas. READ MORE »
Finally…a UN Mission in Darfur: The First Step in a Long, Difficult Journey
September 26, 2007
In his address to the General Assembly on Tuesday, President Bush called on the UN to “live up to its promise to promptly deploy peacekeeping forces to Darfur.” Getting the forces deployed, however, is the easy part compared to the challenges that lie ahead. READ MORE »
Ulster: A British Experience in Counterinsurgency
September 20, 2007
Last month with little fanfare, the British Army officially ended its 38-year involvement in Northern Ireland. While Ulster cannot be compared in most respects to acute challenges of Iraq, there are some interesting issues in their own right which highlight some of the problems and opportunities democratic governments have in addressing counterinsurgencies. READ MORE »
Sarkozy in the Middle East: Between Zeal and Reality
September 18, 2007
France’s new President Nicolas Sarkozy has conducted an activist foreign policy reminiscent of his predecessor’s opposition to the Iraq war. This time, however, French diplomacy in the Middle East is no longer about obstructing grandiose US plans. Indeed, there is unprecedented convergence of views between Paris and Washington on key issues affecting the region. READ MORE »
Domestic Disease Detection: The Other Surveillance
September 13, 2007
In 1999, only the hunches of one clinician and a zoo veterinarian sounded the alarm that a new disease had appeared in the U.S. The National Biosurveillance Integration System, launched five years later to improve timely detection of outbreaks, has failed to close critical gaps in biodefense information-sharing. READ MORE »
Seeking a Safe Landing in Pakistan
September 11, 2007
Nawaz Sharif’s dramatic return to Pakistan was short-lived. His deportation to Saudi Arabia accelerates the political drama now unfolding in Pakistan, which is now at a critical juncture. Recent developments, and dramatic new events sure to follow, clarify how crucial an independent judiciary and free and fair elections are to Pakistan’s well being. » READ MORE »
Ahmadinejad's International Education
September 6, 2007
Iran's President, elected with no foreign policy experience, has visited over two dozen countries in his two years in office. In the Gulf and Central Asia, his meetings often compete with American efforts to expand trade and security relationships. Overall, his travels do not appear to have altered his view of the world or forced him to change his controversial policies. READ MORE »
Water: The New Source of International Conflict?
September 4, 2007
Population growth and economic growth has taken its toll on one of the planet’s most fleeting commodity: water. Water is becoming increasingly polluted and scarce due to poor management and climate change. In the future, water could emerge as one of the main drivers of international conflict. READ MORE »
A New Cabinet in Japan—Does it work for Washington?
August 30, 2007
To Washington's relief, Abe's new cabinet places a group of experienced politicians who have strong personal commitment to the US-Japan alliance. Whether Abe can capitalize on that, however, depends on his leadership ability. READ MORE »
Making it Feasible to Rid the World of Nuclear Weapons
August 27, 2007
The threat of nuclear terrorism underlies renewed interest in eliminating nuclear weapons from all nations. It is in the United States’ interest to embrace this ideal goal seriously and to pursue it pragmatically by negotiating a number of multinational agreements, as well as by taking unilateral steps to protect itself during the lengthy time required to achieve the goal of zero nuclear weapons. READ MORE »
The US-India 123 Agreement: From Bad to Worse
August 23, 2007
Bad agreements usually only get worse when implemented, and the U.S.-India civil nuclear cooperation agreement appears headed in this unfortunate direction. READ MORE »
Nepal's Stumbling Peace Process: The Challenge of Democracy
August 20, 2007
When the Nepali government and Maoist rebels signed a comprehensive peace agreement last November, they ended a decade-long civil conflict and laid the foundation for a parliamentary democracy. Less than a year later, ethnic and political violence and poor state capacity are colliding to endanger regional stability and Nepal’s fragile democracy. READ MORE »
The Rise of Networks
August 16, 2007
Does the nonproliferation community understand the implications of the AQ Khan network? Perhaps in a fleeting way. But, three years later, the study of illicit networks still has not been put at the forefront of our analysis. It should be. >> READ MORE »
The Proliferation Security Initiative: Too Much, Too Soon
August 13, 2007
Until the Proliferation Security Initiative evolves into a more formal structure and develops a solid foundation in international law, the United States would be better served by re-emphasizing efforts to secure weapons of mass destruction and the materials to make them at the source. READ MORE »
ASEAN Charts a New Course in Manila
August 9, 2007
At its 40th annual ministerial-level meeting in Manila the 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) adopted a draft Charter designed to dispel its READ MORE »
The NGO Role in Implementing UNSCR 1540
August 6, 2007
The UN Security Council is quietly implementing Resolution 1540, which calls on all states to enforce global anti-proliferation measures. It entails a transfer of knowledge, technology and resources to establish an effective global baseline to stop proliferation of dangerous weapons and material. Nongovernment organizations are playing an important role in this critical activity. � READ MORE »
Voters spoke, but will Abe listen?—reading the political landscape in Tokyo
August 2, 2007
On July 29, 2007, Japanese voters spoke with a loud and clear voice: they do not like the way Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has governed since September 2006. In the Upper House election, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a historical defeat. » READ MORE »
Lebanon's Summer of Fear
July 30, 2007
Once again, Lebanon faces a deteriorating security situation, interference by outsiders, and domestic political paralysis. The Lebanese, who widely share an aversion to political violence, wonder whom they can turn to for protection and representation. Will international mediation efforts be enough to hold the country together? » READ MORE »
Iraq's Hot Summer ... And Ours
July 26, 2007
Iraqis and Americans have some things in common - both are deeply disappointed in the dismal results of the US intervention to reinvent the Iraqi state. Americans are impatient at Iraqi failure to meet its benchmarks on oil, reconciliation, and other metrics of governance. But benchmarks alone won't determine when and how the US leaves Iraq. We're there for some time to come. » READ MORE »
Climate Change: Prioritizing Human Security
July 23, 2007
The rapid degradation of our environment poses what is arguably the greatest threat to the security of current and future generations. While the science linking climate change to human activity stresses a grim reality, it is not too late for policymakers to mitigate the worst impacts of global warming. » READ MORE »
Security Professionals for 21st Century Threats
July 19, 2007
On May 17, 2007, President George W. Bush issued Executive Order 13434 that establishes a national security professional development policy. If implemented effectively, this Executive Order will address the deficiencies of Federal security professionals that were manifested in the response to Hurricane Katrina. » READ MORE »
Nuclear Abolition: Then and Now
July 16, 2007
Nuclear disarmament is a process, not an on or off switch. It is a journey as well as a destination. The destination may never be reached, but the journey is still essential because the steps along the way increase public safety even if the destination is never reached. » READ MORE »
US-Japan Alliance: Adrift Again?
July 13, 2007
A decade ago, the US-Japan alliance was adrift. With the Cold War over, the alliance lost its focus, and the alliance managers in both countries struggled to find a new rationale for the US-Japan alliance. Since then, the US-Japan alliance has steadily evolved as the anchor of the US bilateral alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region. » READ MORE »
TIMN Is Everything: A Framework for Improving Post-Conflict Peacebuilding
July 9, 2007
We know that the human brain has grown over time, adding emotional reflexes, a sense of personal identity, and fully rational thought to basic motor control, physically layering each new capacity over the others and using all in concert. What would it mean for peacebuilding if human society followed a similar pattern? » READ MORE »
Taming the Vulture: Turning Distressed-Debt Investors into Agents of Social Change
July 3, 2007
Joining the debt for nonproliferation concept with distressed-debt investing, concerned governments should capitalize a new Distressed-Debt Nonproliferation Fund. These resources could be used to fund proliferation security enhancements mandated by UN Security Council Resolution 1540. » READ MORE »
No Time to Think: Military Leaders & Halting Mass Atrocities
June 26, 2007
Without advance preparation to support deployed forces, missions that encounter physical threats to civilian populations too often must make up strategies on the ground - and hope for the best. » READ MORE »
The White Plague: Forgotten but Not Gone
June 22, 2007
The wild ride of Andrew Speaker, clean-cut bearer of drug-resistant tuberculosis, finally careened to a relatively subdued close in a Denver hospital after splashing the acronym XDR-TB across headlines and hearing rooms. Questions raised by his ability to thwart Federal public health intentions, not to mention U.S. border security measures, continue to simmer. » READ MORE »
Radiological Terrorism: The Dangers of Public Misperception
June 13, 2007
Since the September 11th attacks, emergency response organizations in the U.S. have improved their capacity to respond to a radiological terrorist incident. Despite these efforts, public misperception about the effects of radiological terrorism still has the potential to undermine emergency response efforts after a radiological attack. » READ MORE »
North Korea: So, If the Banking Issue Is Resolved, What's Next?
June 11, 2007
Indications are that a "technical glitch" holding up progress in North Korean denuclearization talks may soon be resolved. If so, movement to verifiably "freeze" known DPRK nuclear facilities can be expected in the immediate future. Achieving substantial progress beyond that, however, is likely to prove far more difficult. READ MORE »
Philippines Story
June 6, 2007
The colorful hand-built “jeepneys” of the Philippines stand as a metaphor for the spirit and ingenuity of the Filipino people. Just as the privately owned jeepneys substitute for a nearly non-existent public transportation system, dollar remittances from millions of expatriates and overseas contract workers, most of them women, fill the gap left by an underperforming economy. » READ MORE »
Don't Let RWW Undermine Nonproliferation
May 31, 2007
We are now at the front end of what is likely to be a contentious domestic debate over replacing existing nuclear warheads with simpler designs that may never need to be tested. » READ MORE »
Iraq After the Sharm el-Sheikh Meeting
May 29, 2007
Earlier this month, more than sixty nations gathered in Sharm el-Sheikh in a show of support to Iraq's battered institutions. While intending to map the road to political and economic recovery, the International Compact with Iraq achieved little substantive progress. » READ MORE »
Rocky Road Ahead for Peacebuilding Commission
May 24, 2007
The UN has created a new Peacebuilding Commission to help keep post-conflict countries, like Sierra Leone and Burundi, from relapsing into violent conflict. By bringing in the direct participation of member states, the Commission is poised to be an effective tool for enhancing global stability. � READ MORE »
Iraq: Why Reconciliation Is So Hard
May 22, 2007
The US will need to be more patient with Iraq on reconciliation; caught in various grievances both old and new, Iraqis also lack transcendent figures who can create consensus about a new vision and put the past to rest. The international community should focus on governance and security, since reconciliation will take time. » READ MORE »
The Implications of Unrest in Pakistan for Nuclear Security
May 18, 2007
Unrest along Pakistan's tribal areas is worsening, and General Musharraf is in the midst of the worst political crisis of his tenure. During this turbulent period, are Pakistan's bombs secure? » READ MORE »
Foreign Assistance Transformed?
May 15, 2007
In January 2006, the Secretary of State announced the reorganization of foreign assistance under a Director, who was charged with coordinating assistance programs across both USAID and the State Department. Many applauded the initiative, but more than a year later there are still serious doubts about the nature, the pace, and the direction of the reform. » READ MORE »
Can The Bush Administration Craft an Effective Policy Toward Southeast Asia?
May 11, 2007
A lack of focus and insufficient resources have caused US and Southeast Asian officials and analysts to worry that China’s rising regional role will pose a longer term risk to US interests and regional stability. The lack of an effective response towards the ongoing geopolitical shifts could prove costly to both American and Southeast Asian interests in economic development and peace. » READ MORE »
Yeltsin's Nonproliferation Legacy: Two Steps Forward, Now Two Steps Back?
May 8, 2007
Boris Yeltsin's advances are now under threat from the current leadership in Moscow who may be dismantling his impressive nonproliferation legacy. Without some action from the Russian government these historic programs may have died with the former President. » READ MORE »
Fumbling with the Key: Building State Capacity in Afghanistan
May 3, 2007
A full five years after international assistance started in earnest, the government of Afghanistan remains unable to exercise many of its most basic functions. The international community has invested at least half a billion dollars to help build Afghan state capacity, but these efforts have been haphazard, wasteful and ineffective. » READ MORE »
A New Beginning in US-Iran Relations?
May 1, 2007
This weekend, the US Secretary of State may meet her Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki. Even a brief encounter will raise expectations about a shift in US-Iran tensions. The most optimistic outcome is the first step in a long and painful walk towards a more normal relationship, but powerful forces in both countries will put obstacles in the path. » READ MORE »
Darfur, Iraq or Rwanda: What Can Militaries do to Protect Civilians?
April 26, 2007
What do Sudan and Iraq have in common? In both countries, international military forces are grappling with the question of how best to protect civilians from extreme levels of violence and mass atrocities. As international ambitions grow to embrace a responsibility to protect civilians from genocide and such violence, however, much work is needed to translate this goal into reality. » READ MORE »
In the event of a bioterrorist attack, only 800 million doses could be developed and produced over a nine month period for a global population of over 6 billion, even if the world's vaccine manufacturers could find common cause and focus on producing a single vaccine. READ MORE »
Can Goldwater-Nichols Reforms for the Interagency Succeed?
April 19, 2007
National security officials and experts often say that the interagency process is broken, and invoke the military's experience in the Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986 as a model for reform. But interagency problems may not be amenable to intradepartmental solutions. READ MORE »
What Legacy Will Musharraf Leave?
April 17, 2007
What does Pakistan's President, General Pervez Musharraf, want his legacy to be? Does he want to be known as the man who helped put Pakistan on the road to becoming a moderate, enlightened, progressive Islamic state? Or the man who weakened the judiciary, political parties, and the media to stay in power? READ MORE »
China & the U.S. Congress: Patience is a Virtue
April 13, 2007
As a result of the shift of power to the Democrats and recent political and economic developments, China will receive greater attention in the 110th Congress than was the case in the last Congress. New legislation will affect China, and will become a more important part of the complex US-China relationship. READ MORE »
Him Who Shall Have Borne the Battle: The Complex Costs of War
April 9, 2007
In response to reports of substandard conditions at one of the nation’s premier military health centers, policymakers have a chance to address more than just a laundry list of leaks and stains. READ MORE »
Public Programs, Private Opportunities in the FSU
April 3, 2007
In order to sustainably redirect former Soviet WMD scientists into peaceful, civilian employment, the US Government needs to do more to bring private companies in as partners to these critical national security efforts. READ MORE »
Keep the peacekeepers in the Congo
March 27, 2007
Less than four months after the European Union pulled a 2,000-strong security contingent out of the capital, Kinshasa, up to 600 people have been killed in clashes there between forces loyal to losing presidential candidate Jean-Pierre Bemba and government forces. READ MORE »
China and the Middle East: No threat to US interests, for now
March 26, 2007
China wants the US to be more flexible vis a vis Iran and is concerned about the consequences of US failure in Iraq. It does not harbor, for now, any great ambition to inherit leadership for the region’s protracted problems, and is satisfied with its current limited role in the Arab-Israeli peace process. READ MORE »
“Comfort Women” Controversy Casts a Shadow on Japan
March 19, 2007
On March 1, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, questioned the degree and nature of Japanese government's involvement in recruiting so-called READ MORE »
Reflections on War and Peacebuilding
March 8, 2007
Peace operations most often fail when an unsustainable, rushed peace agreement, election, or constitution locks new governments into structures that may not be appropriate to their culture or circumstances. This “original sin,” as Lakhdar Brahimi calls it, can doom even the most well-intentioned effort. READ MORE »
Shanghai Flu, Global Cold?
February 28, 2007
The sharp fall in Shanghai’s stock market last Tuesday, February 27, continues to unsettle global markets and raise concerns that China might become the source of yet another potential pandemic – this time a financial one. At a minimum, the flu in China’s market has given world financial markets a cold, and one that seems to be getting worse. READ MORE »
Go On, Seize the Peace
February 26, 2007
The attack on the Samjhauta Express underlines that the higher one climbs toward the summit of peace-making, the more daunting the challenges. But leaders on both sides must remain steadfast. READ MORE »
Negotiating with North Korea: Bridging the Differences Among the Key Parties
February 20, 2007
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