Space Security
In 2012, the Stimson Center's Space Security Project is focusing on two initiatives, both led by Stimson co-founder, Michael Krepon: to build support for a Code of Conduct for responsible space-faring nations, and to compare and contrast "space deterrence" and nuclear deterrence.
Stimson has been focusing on ways to enhance U.S. security and to avoid dangerous confrontations in space since 2002. The objective of Stimson programming is to help assure that satellites critical for US national and economic security will be available for use when needed. The use of satellites won't be assured through warfare in space because satellites are very vulnerable, and because all major space-faring nations have multiple means to interfere, disable or destroy them. A Code of Conduct can strengthen norms for the responsible use of space, while facilitating actions against those who act irresponsibly in this domain.
Currently, the United States and other nations endorse and practice codes of appropriate conduct at sea, on the ground, and in the air. Activities in space do not have an analogous code. At a time when space is becoming more congested and contested, there are many benefits to be gained by reaching agreement among major space-faring nations to mitigate space debris, refrain from purposeful, harmful interference against objects in space, and implement space traffic management procedures.
Stimson's first prepared a draft Code of Conduct along these lines in 2004. Stimson's second draft, in 2007, was a collaborative effort with nongovernmental organizations based in Russia, China, Japan, France and Canada. The concept of a Code of Conduct is now gaining momentum. Countries of the European Union, Japan and Canada have subsequently endorsed this concept, and the EU prepared and circulated its own draft Code of Conduct in 2008. After serious deliberation, the Obama administration also endorsed a properly crafted Code of Conduct in January, 2012.
Space is a global commons. Threats to this global commons threaten all space-faring nations. This is especially true with respect to space debris. When the People's Liberation Army carried out a kinetic-energy anti-satellite (ASAT) test in 2007, the debris field created by this event placed hundreds of satellites in greater jeopardy. Human spaceflight also became more endangered. A Code of Conduct can strengthen international norms against irresponsible ASAT tests and help advance the peaceful, scientific and commercial uses of outer space.
Much work is needed on the details of a Code of Conduct and on broadening international support for this initiative. Key states, including China, Russia, India and Brazil, have reservations about this approach. In 2012, Stimson will continue to make the case for this diplomatic initiative. Under the UN's auspices, a Group of Governmental Experts will convene in July 2012, providing an opportunity to broaden international support for a well-crafted Code of Conduct.
The second Stimson space programming initiative is an analytical assessment that compares and contrasts the requirements of space and nuclear deterrence. While many library shelves have been devoted to nuclear deterrence, analytical work on deterring warfare in space is very sparse. Perhaps this is because space deterrence has usually been considered a lesser included case: the means used to deter nuclear attack could also deter attacks against satellites. Moreover, Washington and Moscow possessed many means to interfere with or destroy satellites; they didn't need to dedicate significant resources for this mission. Another reason appears to be that both superpowers understood that to attack or disable satellites could trigger a nuclear war. For whatever reason, the requirements for space deterrence have been remarkably slight throughout the Cold War: "dedicated" or operational anti-satellite weapons were deployed only in small number and for infrequent periods, in marked contrast to the presumed requirements of nuclear deterrence. Washington and Moscow tested ASAT weapons rarely, as opposed to their nuclear tests.
The demonstration of ASAT capabilities by the United States and China during the Bush administration, the revival of the Russian space program and the breadth and momentum of the Chinese space program have led to renewed interest in the subject of deterring unwelcome actions in space. Stimson has assembled an outstanding Advisory Board to help compare and contrast space deterrence and nuclear deterrence. Advisory Board members include Richard Betts, Barry Blechman, Lincoln Bloomfield, Jr., Linton Brooks, Elaine Bunn, Elbridge Colby, Daniel Deudney, Andrew Erickson, David Hamon, Roger Harrison, Peter Hays, Theresa Hitchens, Robert Jervis, Kerry Kartchner, Sandra Leavitt, James Lewis, Bruce MacDonald, Frank Miller, James Clay Moltz, Forrest Morgan, Karl Mueller, Michael Nacht, Michael O'Hanlon; Victoria Samson, John Sheldon, and Paul Stares.
Stimson's Advisory Board will help shape the projects research agenda, and critique commissioned essays. Stimson will produce a book-length product of the project's essays along with the Project Director's introduction and conclusion.