NEWS ADVISORY
Lingering Ambitions:
The Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons in the Persian Gulf
March 27, 1997
The underlying factors motivating Iraq’s drive to obtain weapons of mass destruction have not changed.
Washington, DC—Thanks to UN efforts, Iraq no longer has the infrastructure needed to pursue a nuclear weapons program. But it still has the nuclear scientists and engineers. And many suspect it still desires to build nuclear weapons.
If UN sanctions on Iraq are lifted, will Saddam seek to restart the country’s clandestine programs to develop chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons? Ongoing monitoring by international inspectors currently is keeping tabs on Iraqi activities. Yet the underlying factors motivating Iraq’s drive to obtain weapons of mass destruction have not changed.
Iran is also suspected of ambitions to acquire nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. Additionally, it may be trying to extend its geographical reach by obtaining advanced missile technology.
What drives these Persian Gulf states’ pursuit of weapons of mass destruction? Can proliferation in the region be stopped, or only slowed? Is there any hope of eliminating WMD in the region?
In a new study, Dr. Shahram Chubin, an expert on international security issues, probes Iran and Iraq’s attitudes toward WMD and the roles these weapons play in the national policies of the Persian Gulf states.
Eliminating the two countries’ nuclear ambitions, Chubin cautions, is likely to require major changes in domestic, regional, and international politics. A change in regime in Iraq or Iran could improve chances for arms control, but new leadership alone will not eliminate the countries’ desires to obtain nuclear weapons. What could help is a devaluation of nuclear weapons by the major powers in the world. Steps to make international structures more representative could also lessen Iran and Iraq’s ambitions to obtain nuclear weapons, Chubin argues.
A devaluation of nuclear weapons by major powers could lessen Iran and Iraq’s desires to acquire such weapons.
The current US policy of technology denial is "at best a stopgap measure," Chubin cautions. This policy should be teamed with bilateral confidence-building measures and regional dialogue on a range of security issues. In the short term, Chubin recommends focusing on small-scale initiatives, such as naval confidence-building measures, rather than on a comprehensive framework addressing all regional tensions and conflicts.
"Arms control will not lead but, rather, must develop in parallel to, or follow, progress in the political domain," Chubin concludes. In particular, progress toward resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict could diminish nuclear weapons ambitions in Iran and Iraq.
The study, “Eliminating Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Persian Gulf Case,” was part of a series that examined the role of weapons of mass destruction in regional politics and security. It was completed under the auspices of the Project on Eliminating Weapons of Mass Destruction at the Henry L. Stimson Center, a non-profit research organization specializing in international security and arms control issues.
