All Publications by Richard Cincotta

• Iran: Taking Aim at Low Fertility and Women’s Mobility

  Iran's domestic policies affecting reproduction and women's rights have taken several abrupt twists and turns since the revolution of 1980. Most recently, the government announced

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• Minority Youth Bulges and the Future of Intrastate Conflict

  The global distribution of intrastate conflicts is not what it used to be. During the latter half of the 20th century, the states with the most youthful populations - a median age

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• Youth Bulges and Societal Conflicts: Have Peace Support Operations Made a Difference?

  Young and war-torn countries have been the ones most at risk for violent societal conflict until recently.[1] From the 1970s through the 1990s, more than 90 percent of all societal

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• Seismic Shift: Understanding Change in the Middle East

  The momentous events sweeping the Arab world since late 2010 raise important questions about the art and science of analyzing political and societal events. In an age of information

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• Holding on to the One Child Policy: China’s Great Demographic Trade-Off

  Beijing's 2008 decision to maintain a somewhat liberalized version of its One-Child Policy surprised both Chinese and foreign demographers. Was the decision the product of a

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• Whither the Demographic Arc of Instability?

  The "demographic arc of instability" is created by highlighting countries with exceptionally young populations.  Projections for 2030 indicate that demographic factors for

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• Afghanistan’s Sky-high Birthrate Seems to be Declining—and That’s a Very Good Thing

  Picture Afghanistan two decades from now. Difficult? Not really-if you're a demographer. The two agencies that independently publish population estimates- the UN Population Division

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• Prospects for Ahmadinejad’s Call for More Rapid Population Growth in Iran

  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent remarks, appealing to Iranian legislators to take steps to boost the country’s population from 70 to 120 million and condemning the

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