All Publications by Ellen Laipson

• Iraq’s New Normal

  Amidst all the 10-year anniversary analysis of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein, the missing piece is a clear and coherent picture of Iraq today and its

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• Presidential Inbox 2013: Take a Strategic Approach to Iran

  Click here to view the complete Presidential Inbox series.

  The Challenge

  It is time to develop a broader, more inclusive approach to US policy towards Iran. The past years'

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• The Changing Middle East: Updating the Security Agenda

  Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta's travels across the Middle East this week put the spotlight on a daunting and dynamic list of security challenges for the states of the region,

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• And Why Baghdad Anyway?

  Most arms control negotiations take place in Geneva, Vienna, or other charming European capitals.  The agreement by all the parties to reconvene in Baghdad, the troubled capital

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• Tunisia’s Transition: Still the Arab Revolts’ Best Hope

  A year and a half since a small-town Tunisian set himself and the Arab world ablaze, Tunisia is still the most promising case of an Arab society and state in transition to a

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• Engaging Iran on Afghanistan

  As conditions deteriorate for western forces in Afghanistan, and as prospects for talks between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany appear

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• Engaging Iran on Afghanistan

  This report examines the importance of engaging Iran as one of the key neighbors of Afghanistan during the period of withdrawal of international forces through 2014. It looks at the

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• Iraq in 2012: Gateway to Uncertainty

  An important chapter in US-Iraq relations has now ended, with the final departure of US combat troops from the country, as envisioned by former President Bush and Prime Minister

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• Pakistan and Afghanistan: Turbulence and Transitions

  The anticipated drawdown of international forces in Afghanistan is adding to the turmoil in the domestic and foreign policies of Afghanistan and its key neighbor, Pakistan.  Few

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• Crucial Role of Multilateral Diplomacy in Sustaining US Global Leadership

  Esther Brimmer, Assistant Secretary for International Organization Affairs, held a conversation with Ellen Laipson, President and CEO of the Stimson Center, September 15 on

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• Stimson Experts Respond to Events in Libya

  Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon is sending his special envoy for Libya, Abdel-Elah Al-Khatib, and his special adviser on post-conflict planning for Libya, Ian Martin, to Doha,

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• The Security Agenda for a Changing Middle East

  The Arab revolt that began in late 2010 throws many assumptions about the Middle East and regional security into question.  States that were once considered strong have shown

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• Seismic Shift Addresses Understanding Change in the Middle East

  The momentous events sweeping the Arab world since the end of 2010 raise important questions about the art and science of analyzing political and societal events.  Stimson invited a

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• Seismic Shift: Understanding Change in the Middle East

  The momentous events sweeping the Arab world since late 2010 raise important questions about the art and science of analyzing political and societal events. In an age of information

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• Stimson President Ellen Laipson Reacts to Obama’s Speech

  The President's speech on the Middle East was workmanlike on the issue of democratic change, and relatively more interesting on Arab-Israeli peace.  Overall, his message was that

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• Stimson Experts React to Death of Osama bin Laden

  Osama bin Laden was killed early Monday (Sunday afternoon in Washington), in a raid by U.S. Navy SEALs on his compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.  Lincoln Bloomfield, Jr., Ellen

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• C-SPAN Interviews Ellen Laipson on Middle East and North African Unrest

  Ellen Laipson appears on C-SPAN's Washington Journal to discuss the geopolitical impact from the continuing anti-government protests in the Middle East and Northern Africa, and

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• Beyond Cairo: Prospects for change in the Middle East

  This article was first published in The Hill on February 16, 2011.

  After weeks of excitement and surprise, it is time to try to make meaning out of the momentous events in Tunisia

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• Iraq’s Transition in the Shadow of Egypt

  As the world is riveted to the upheaval in Egypt, Iraq's decade-long transition to more representative government seems like old news.  Iraq's change was caused by US military

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• The Arab World’s First Soft Revolution?

  A spontaneous, massive uprising of discontent in the normally serene Mediterranean country of Tunisia could signal a turning point in the Arab world - the slow motion reform

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• Ellen Laipson offers thoughts on Iran for USIP’s Iran Primer

  On December 1, USIP will release The Iran Primer, which brings together 50 top experts-both Western and Iranian-to offer comprehensive but concise overviews of Iran's politics,

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• Report on the Workshop: Nuclear Dangers, Nuclear Realities

  In the future, 2009 and 2010 may emerge as a decisive time in the evolution of international nuclear policies.  The global demand for energy security has led to renewed interest

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• The New Iraq and the Palestine Question

  Iraq has only limited time or interest in the Arab-Israeli conflict these days; its own problems, understandably, are more central to its national interests and priorities. But a

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• The Future of US-Iraq Relations

  An important transition is underway in the official relationship between the United States and Iraq. Since late 2008, relations have been governed by two agreements: one related to

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• On the Move: Migration Challenges in the Indian Ocean Littoral

  On the Move: Migration Challenges in the Indian Ocean Littoral is the product of Stimson’s work on migration over the past year, and it points to how the migration agenda is evolving

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• The Future of US-Iraq Relations

  The official relationship between the United States and Iraq is in transition, governed by the 2008 Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA), which provides the broad architecture for

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• 21st Century Migration: Crosscutting Policy Challenges

  By Ellen Laipson and Carrie Chomuik

  Migration is a major force of change in today's world. The World Bank, the International Organization for Migration, and the Internal

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• Policy Crossroads: US Policies towards Iraq and Iran in Obama’s Second Year

  When President Obama came into office, he pledged important shifts in US approaches to the challenges of Iraq and Iran. In the first year of the new administration, senior officials

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• Iraq’s New Realities

  This article was first published in Middle East Online on October 25, 2009.

  Iraq is no longer on the front pages, as the war in Afghanistan becomes the preoccupying concern of

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• Engaging Iran: How Broad an Agenda?

  Over the past week, the revelations of a second, secret nuclear enrichment facility in Iran have altered the tone and content of upcoming talks between the Perm-5 (US, China,

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• Engaging Iran: How Broad an Agenda?

  Over the past week, the revelations of a second, secret nuclear enrichment facility in Iran have altered the tone and content of upcoming talks between the Perm-5 (US, China, Russia,

  … Read More »
• The Arab World in Global Context

  By 2015, the population of the Arab world will reach nearly 400 million, well more than double the 150 million of 1980. This huge increase is taking place while supplies of water

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• Engaging Iran: Strategic Goal or Means to an End?

  Chapter appears in Engaging Iran: Lessons from the Past edited by Patrick Clawson and published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy

   When President Khatami was elected

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• Engaging Iran: Strategic Goal or Means to an End?

  When President Khatami was elected in 1997, the Clinton Administration, in its second term, saw an opportunity to change the tone of US-Iran relations, and hoped to change the

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• The Indian Ocean: Resource and Governance Challenges

  The Indian Ocean: Resource and Governance Challenges explores current realities and emerging maritime concerns in the Indian Ocean. Regional experts and Stimson analysts assess the

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• How its Arab neighbours can help to build the new Iraq

  The Obama administration has made Iraq’s reintegration into the region one of the cornerstones of its Iraq policy. It is naturally linked to US hopes for stability in Iraq - a

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• Iraqi Refugees and Regional Stability

  Iraq's refugee crisis is an often neglected part of the larger Iraq drama. It needs more attention for purely humanitarian reasons, with at least one million Iraqis living outside

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• Islam and Politics: Renewal and Resistance in the Muslim World

  In Islam and Politics: Renewal and Resistance in the Muslim World, Muslim writers, regional experts, and Stimson analysts discuss contemporary Muslim thinking about issues at the

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• The Iraqi Refugee Crisis in Regional Context

  The Iraqi Refugee Crisis in Regional Context: Testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia

  The plight of the more than a

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• Iraq, its Neighbors, and the Obama Administration:  Syrian and Saudi Perspectives

  A Report by the US Institute of Peace and the Stimson Center 

  A group of experts sponsored by USIP and the Stimson Center traveled to Syria and Saudi Arabia to interview government

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• The Indian Ocean: A Critical Arena for 21st Century Threats and Challenges

  Think of the Indian Ocean as a geographic region, where more than two dozen states along its rim interact as neighbors and sometimes competitors, where outside powers pass through,

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• New Information and Intelligence Needs in the 21st Century Threat Environment

  The Stimson Center, in collaboration with the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, explored how current information and intelligence systems support homeland security

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• Negotiating Security Arrangements with Iraq: Easier Said than Done

  The leadership in both Iraq and the United States agree on many things regarding Iraq's security and America's role in it. Both Prime Minister Maliki and his key ministers and the

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• America and the Emerging Iraqi Reality: New Goals, No Illusions

  It is time for a new policy in Iraq, to recalibrate America’s equities and engagement there. The current administration is tied to its policy, knowing that the president’s historic

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• Transnational Trends: Middle Eastern and Asian Views

  This volume presents views from disciplines as varied as science, journalism, economics, epidemiology, and on issues as diverse as fisheries, climate change, public health, and

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• Negotiating Security Arrangements with Iraq: Easier Said than Done

  The leadership in both Iraq and the United States agree on many things regarding Iraq’s security and America’s role in it. Both Prime Minister Maliki and his key ministers and the

  … Read More »
• Don’t Declare Victory

  This article was initially published in The American Interest for its March-April 2008 issue.

  The 2008 definition of “winning” in Iraq is more about security narrowly construed than

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• US Policy in the Middle East: Coping in a Year of Instability

  This chapter first appeared in the 2007 Mediterranean Yearbook, published by the Institut Europeu de la Mediterrania

  US policies in the Middle East region faced acute challenges in

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• Washington – Still in Search of a Coherent Iran Policy

  During his January visit to the Middle East, President Bush tried to put any doubts to rest about a dramatic shift in US policy toward Iran, as a result of the December unclassified

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• Iran’s Nuclear Program:  Does New Intelligence mean a New Policy?

  The new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran generated gasps of surprise and for some, delight.  US government analysts now judge with high confidence that Iran made a

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• Demography and Conflict: How are they connected?

   A new study by Population Action International, The Shape of Things to Come, looks at decades of data on age structures of countries, the demographic "shape" of countries at

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• Ahmadinejad’s International Education

  Iran's President, elected with no foreign policy experience and apparently no first-hand knowledge of any of Iran's immediate neighbors or any of the great powers, has been making

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• Iraq’s Hot Summer … and Ours

  It’s over 100 degrees every day in Iraq this month, and few people have reliable access to electricity. Imagine sitting at home when even a small electric fan lies still for many

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• Iraq’s Hot Summer … and Ours

  It's over 100 degrees every day in Iraq this month, and few people have reliable access to electricity. Imagine sitting at home when even a small electric fan lies still for many

  … Read More »
• Iraq: Why Reconciliation Is So Hard

  As American politicians debate deadlines and benchmarks for Iraqi performance, it is clear that Iraqi society and its new political class are not yet in a conciliatory mood.  The

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• Iraq: Why Reconciliation Is So Hard

  As American politicians debate deadlines and benchmarks for Iraqi performance, it is clear that Iraqi society and its new political class are not yet in a conciliatory mood.  The

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• A New Beginning in US-Iran Relations?

  This weekend, the US Secretary of State may meet her Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki, at a meeting on Iraq in the Egyptian resort Sharm el-Sheikh. Even a brief encounter will

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• A New Beginning in US-Iran Relations?

  This weekend, the US Secretary of State may meet her Iranian counterpart, Manouchehr Mottaki, at a meeting on Iraq in the Egyptian resort Sharm el-Sheikh. Even a brief encounter

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• The Security Sector and Prospects for Change in the Middle East

  Pre-production draft of the article in the Summer 2007 publication of Survival Magazine

  For the published text, please click here.

  The Middle East state system is characterized by

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• Ahmadinejad’s International Education

  Iran’s President, elected with no foreign policy experience and apparently no first-hand knowledge of any of Iran’s immediate neighbors or any of the great powers, has been making up

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• China and the Middle East: No threat to US interests, for now

  China wants the US to be more flexible vis a vis Iran and is concerned about the consequences of US failure in Iraq. It does not harbor, for now, any great ambition to inherit

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• China and the Middle East: No threat to US interests, for now

  China wants the US to be more flexible vis a vis Iran and is concerned about the consequences of US failure in Iraq. It does not harbor, for now, any great ambition to inherit

  … Read More »
• Iraq: Beyond Sectarianism

  The rise of sectarianism - allegiance to one's religious sect over national identity - is causing the dissolution of Iraq and its society, perhaps more than any other factor.

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• Peu d’espoir pour l’Irak

  This commentary was first published on December 5, 2006 in Les Echos.

  Il est temps de renoncer à nos espoirs de voir la commission Baker-Hamilton sortir une baguette magique qui

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• Iraq: Hard Choices, Real Consequences

  This commentary was also published in the Daily Star on December 29, 2006

  The daily toll of events in Iraq and the intensity of media coverage from Baghdad, combined with the current

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• The Khatami Visit and US-Iran Relations

  The unusual visit of former Iranian President Khatami to the United States at a time of such uncertainty in US-Iran relations generated strong reactions and unrealistic expectations

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• THE UNITED NATIONS IN 2015:  Some Alternative Futures

  A Workshop Summary

   

  INTRODUCTION

  As the twenty-first century begins, the major instrument of global governance, the United
  Nations (UN), is again in crisis. Multiple panels and

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• Iraq and America: Choices and Consequences

  America’s engagement in Iraq will have profound consequences  for US interests and American national security for the foreseeable future.  The US-led invasion that deposed the

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• The Need to Rethink US Policy towards Iran

  This commentary appeared in the Daily Star on April 18, 2006.

  The second Bush administration has been particularly busy with Iran policy, putting in motion a number of initiatives

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• Iraq After the Elections:  Choices and Challenges Ahead

  The apparent success of Iraq’s December 14 parliamentary elections is good news for Iraq, for the United States, and for the democratization process in the region.  One senses a huge

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• Improving the Interagency Process to Face 21st Century Security Challenges

  Dear Colleague,

  On behalf of the U.S. Army’s Dwight D. Eisenhower National Security Series and the Henry L. Stimson Center, we are pleased to provide this short report on an

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• Saudi Security: King Abdallah’s Greatest Challenge

  This commentary appeared in the Daily Star on September 22, 2005.

  The peaceful transition to the reign of King Abdallah, amidst great security uncertainties inside the kingdom and in

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• NATO’s New Missions in the Middle East

  An Arabic version of this commentary appeared in Al-Hayat on August 20, 2005.

  NATO is picking up the pace of its engagement in the Middle East, putting aside any lingering doubts

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• The US-Iran-Iraq Triangle: Uncertainty and Anxiety

  A summer of pain and uncertainty grinds on in Iraq.  Next door, Iran has elected a new president, which does not augur well for any positive change in US-Iran relations.  The

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• The Robb-Silberman Report, Intelligence, and Nonproliferation

  This article originally appeared in the June 2005 issue of Arms Control Today

  On March 31, a bipartisan commission led by former Senator Charles Robb (D-Va.) and federal appellate

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• Security Sector Reform: The Final Frontier?

  This piece originally appeared in the March 2005 edition of the Arab Reform Bulletin.

  As the reform agenda for the Arab world continues to expand, it is time to integrate the issue

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• The Role of US Intelligence in Israeli-Palestinian Relations

  This piece appeared in the May 12, 2005 issue of Bitterlemons International.
  

  With all the laments about intelligence failures in Iraq and elsewhere, a belief persists that

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• Iraq’s Future:  Making the Most of the Elections’ Success

  The mood in Iraq has changed, and important parts of society appear to be energized and engaged in building a new political culture for the country.  For the United States, there is

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• America’s Missed Opportunity in the Middle East

  This commentary appeared in the September 1, 2004 edition of the London Financial Times.

   

  Both sides in the US political contest are focusing anew on Iran. This is long overdue, as

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• US Stakes between Iraq, Iran

  Commentary published in the Christian Science Monitor on August 30, 2004.

  WASHINGTON - During the Athens Olympics, world-class Iranian judo champion Arash Miresmaeili forfeited his

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• The New Iraq and its Neighbors

  The transition to a sovereign Iraq is a mixed blessing for the immediate neighbors.  While each bordering state may have worried about the potential spillover of violence in Iraq,

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• The Absence of a US Policy towards Iran and its Consequences

  This analysis is based on a presentation given to the American Academy of Diplomacy on May 27, 2004

  Iran remains in the very-hard-to-do box when it comes to developing a coherent and

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• Testimony On Intelligence and Language Capabilities

  Testimony of Ellen Laipson before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Subcommittee on Intelligence Policy and National Security

        Thank you for giving me the

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• Iraq: Issues on the horizon

  This analysis appeared in the October 23, 2003 edition of Bitterlemons International.
  

  With the unexpected unanimous passage of a new United Nations Security Council resolution on

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• The Iraq War: Views from North Africa

  During a short visit to Tunisia on the eve of the Baghdad “tipping point” in the war, I was exposed to the emotions and intellectual churning in a modern Arab society that have been

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• While America Slept: Understanding Terrorism and Counterterrorism

  In this essay which originally appeared in the January/February 2003 edition of Foreign Affairs, Ellen Laipson reviews The Age of Sacred Terror, a book by Daniel Benjamin and Steven

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• Assessing the Long-Term Challenges

  From, “How to Build a New Iraq after Saddam.”
  Republished with the permission of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

  As Washington debates policies for regime change in

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• New Angles on Iraq: Views of the Stimson Center’s Experts

  The Henry L. Stimson Center presents a collection of short essays on various aspects of the Iraq policy challenge prepared by our experts. We have drawn on the Center’s distinct

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• Intelligence and the Middle East: What Do We Need to Know

  To provide a framework for reviewing the intelligence community’s work on the Middle East, The Washington Institute convened a special Policy Forum panel discussion on February 16,

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