Transition in North Korea
| Date | Thursday, October 14, 2010 |
| Time | 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm |
| Location | Capitol Visitors Center, SVC 215 |
October 14, 2010 — Dr. Victor Cha joined us for a discussion on the current situation in North Korea and the implications of Kim Jong Il's apparent succession plans. Dr. Cha holds the Korea Chair at CSIS and is a professor of Government at Georgetown University. From 2004 to 2007, he was director for Asian affairs at the White House, where he was responsible for coordinating U.S. policy for Japan, the two Koreas, Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Island nations. He also served as U.S. deputy head of delegation to the Six-Party Talks.
Dr. Cha opened the discussion by describing some significant recent events which have taken place in North Korea. Many have begun to speculate about the health of Kim Jong Il, believing that the leader suffered a stroke sometime in 2008. In what many believe to be the first step in Kim Jong Il's succession plan, North Korea's Communist Workers Party held its largest gathering in decades to celebrate the party's 65th anniversary. During the celebration, 28 year old Kim Jong Un was promoted to a four star general and leader of the party in an apparent coronation of Kim Jong Il's youngest son as the next leader of the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea. While Kim Jong Un is western educated and an avid fan of western pursuits such as sports, music and movies, there is not an expectation that North Korea will change dramatically under this new leadership.
The conversation shifted to the North Korean system itself, with Dr. Cha commenting on the sustainability of the current system. Indefinite continued support from China is critical to the stability of the North Korean economy. In addition, a regime such as North Korea relies heavily on ideology, and Kim Jong Un's ideology is a return to the "self-reliance" of the 50's and 60's which includes continued nuclear weapons development and a reversal of even the modest economic reforms. Dr. Cha also suggested this strengthening of ideology may begin to manifest itself in aggressive military actions.
The question and answer period of the briefing focused largely on the internal politics of North Korea and U.S. relations with North Korea and its perceived closest ally, China. Discussion centered on how China would react if North Korea were to collapse internally, with Dr. Cha stating that China does not want to even broach the subject and its primary fear is South Korea, the Obama administration's closest Asian ally, moving in quickly to unify Korea. Dr. Cha also asserted that U.S. relations with North Korea would likely be unchanged by the new regime because the U.S.'s primary concern in North Korea remains nuclear weapons.
Security for a New Century is a bipartisan study group for Congress. We meet regularly with U.S. and international policy professionals to discuss the post-Cold War and post-9/11 security environment. All discussions are off-the-record. It is not an advocacy venue. For more information, please call Mark Yarnell at (202) 224-7560 or write to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).