Iraq: Recent Events and Challenges Ahead
| Date | February 23, 2009 |
| Location | Cannon House Office Building, Room 122 |
The Security for a New Century Study Group was honored to host Ambassador Charles P. Ries, senior fellow at RAND Corporation and former Minister for Economic Affairs and Coordinator for Economic Transition at the US Embassy in Baghdad, for a discussion of recent developments in Iraq and their implications for the future of the country. He focused on the Iraqi elections, passage of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), and challenges facing a changing US-Iraq relationship.
On January 31, 2009, Iraq held local elections across fourteen provinces in all areas of the country except in the Kurdish city of Kirkuk. In general, the elections were met with great success, and everyone saw less violence than expected. Iraqi forces handled almost all security, with the US serving only in a supervisory and organizational capacity. Though the results are still being determined due to the multitude of candidates vying for only 400 seats, the overall consensus is that these elections went tremendously well and serve as an indicator of great progress in Iraq.
Another sign of progress is the recent Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which clarifies the American presence in Iraq and paves the way for US troop withdrawal. The deadline for the departure of American forces from Iraqi cities is June 2009 and December 2011 from the entire country. Additionally, the referendum in summer 2009 allows for revision of the deadlines for withdrawal. Each of these conditions reinforces the overarching aim of the SOFA, which is the reestablishment of Iraqi sovereignty.
Despite such progress, it is important to consider the challenges facing the United States and Iraq as they move forward. The task of the United States is to withdraw from Iraq gracefully while preserving security and economic gains. They must assess the future of provincial reconstruction teams (PRTs) and development assistance, as well as determine a solution to handling Iraqi detainees currently in US custody.
For Iraq, one of the tasks is to properly manage oil. When prices were high, the Iraqi government was encouraged to spend its revenues, but in the current climate, they need to learn to stretch government expenditure. They must also find a way to handle service contract agreements from outside companies. Another key challenge for the Iraqi government is to quell Arab-Kurd tensions and find a lasting settlement with the Kurdish population.
Ambassador Ries’ overall evaluation of the situation in Iraq seemed to be a positive one, despite the myriad challenges he presented. Many of the issues regarding the future of Iraq and the United States are simply logistical; ultimately, the assessment reveals that much progress has been made.
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