Elections in Iraq
| Date | Friday, March 12, 2010 |
| Location | Russell Senate Office Building, Room 385, Washington, D.C. |
March 12, 2010 — Laith Kubba, former Senior Advisor to Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, and Reidar Visser, research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, joined us for a discussion on the Iraqi national elections.
Mr. Visser addressed the question of whether or not Iraq’s 2010 Parliamentary elections would sustain the growth of an Iraqi national consciousness from the past few years or lead to a renewal of the ethno-sectarian conflict that the 2005 elections failed to eradicate. Using the success of Iraq’s 2009 local elections as a foil, Mr. Visser identified some signs—based both on events during the campaign process and ongoing developments in election results—that ethno-sectarian divisions may be on the rise. For example, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law party appears to be doing very well south of Baghdad, the predominately Shi’a portion of the country, and poorly in the northern, Sunni region. Mr. Visser also analyzed the implications of the conduct of the De-Baathification process for the democratic process. Mr. Visser concluded by discussing possible coalitions Maliki may seek.
Dr. Kubba presented a more optimistic outlook on the democratic process in Iraq. Despite all of the setbacks in establishing a functional national government in Iraq since 2003, Dr. Kubba explained, there has been a general trend, however slow, toward a stronger electoral system and a more centralized, national government. Nevertheless, Dr. Kubba identified several challenges Iraq may face in the near future, such as Sunni unrest and growing Iranian discontent as Iraqis continue to gradually shift away from ethno-sectarianism toward nationalist politics.
The Question and Answer session began with a discussion of the role Turkey might play in Iraq as the United States continues its gradual withdrawal. A lively back and forth between the speakers also developed, helping to reconcile their points of view and provide further insights into the implications of the elections. Other topics included the political influence of religious leaders in Iraq, Iran’s stake in the country, and the possibility of party figures below Maliki and Ayad Allawi, the interim Prime Minister in Iraq prior to the 2005 elections, assuming leadership roles in the State of Law and Iraqi National Movement parties respectively. The briefing concluded with a discussion of the importance of Muqtada al-Sadr, an Iraqi Shi’a cleric with ties to Iran and terrorism, in Iraq’s evolving political environment.
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