China and Latin America
| Date | Monday, April 27, 2009 |
| Location | Rayburn House Office Building, Room 2168 |
Security for a New Century was delighted to host Dr. Cynthia Watson, chairwoman of the Department of Security Studies at the National War College and a member of the National Committee on US - China Relations, to lead a discussion on Chinese foreign policy in Latin America.
China’s increased diplomatic and trade related involvement in Latin America, and particularly Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela, has been a source of concern for some commentators who fear that China is seeking to supplant US influence in the region. Broadly speaking, there are two factors that appear to contradict that viewpoint. Firstly, the Chinese regime, and indeed wider society, remains highly risk averse and as such it is perhaps unlikely that they would choose to undermine their key strategic relationship with the US by directly challenging their influence in Latin America. Secondly, the Chinese government is dominated by ‘stovepipe’ thinking and operation, which again may render a long term, coordinated strategy to replace the US in Latin America unlikely.
Chinese involvement in Latin America has seen a marked change since 2000. Previously, relations had been primarily of a diplomatic nature, but rapidly became trade based as China searched for new markets to sustain its growing economy. While trade ties were broad and deep, it is important to note that they were, and are, less than the ties that had developed between China and Africa.
A common misconception is that the key bilateral relationship China has with a Latin American country is with Venezuela. This is a misconception usually based upon a belief that Hugo Chavez’s left wing credentials couple with large oil reserves make a strong relationship between his country and the Chinese Republic most likely. Leaving aside the question of how similar the ruling ideologies of the two countries actually are, the economic reality is that the petroleum that Venezuela produces is not the type that is useful to China. Instead, the key relationship may actually be with another rising power – Brazil. In terms of resources, Brazil produces iron ore, minerals and, crucially, food stuffs such as Soya beans that China requires. Brazil also has had success with deep sea petroleum exploration, and so have technology that China is keen to acquire for its own purposes. Moreover, Brazil’s space program, and specifically its equatorial launch facility, is of potential interest to China as it attempts to build a space program. Finally, there exists a common world view between the two nations. Both are fast emerging states and leaders in their respective regions, yet both feel under appreciated within the global community and, to some extent, resent the influence of Western states on the international system.
While economic goals are undoubtedly the primary driver of increased Chinese involvement in Latin America, there are also political concerns relating to the vexed question of Taiwan. It is unlikely to have escaped China’s attention that of the twenty three nation states that recognize Taiwanese independence, twelve are Latin American. Increased influence for China in this region may well help reduce that number. While relations are currently focused on trade, increased pressure on Latin American countries regarding Taiwan is likely in the future.
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