The Race to Secure Russia’s Loose Nukes: Progress Since 9/11

September 14, 2005

Four years after a bipartisan Task Force recommended an acceleration of programs to secure Russia's vulnerable nuclear weapons and materials by 2009-2011, the United States has failed to dramatically hasten efforts. At the current rate, the United States may not reach that goal until 2020- 2030. Today, enough Russian bomb-grade material for tens of thousands of nuclear weapons remains potentially vulnerable to theft. With al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations having stated their intent to acquire a nuclear device, this potentially catastrophic synthesis of factors has led to realistic fears of a nuclear 9/11.

In January 2001, a bipartisan Task Force led by former Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker (R-TN) and former White House Counsel Lloyd Cutler outlined a strategic plan for dealing with Russia's so-called "loose nukes" problem. Finalized before the onset of the bitter partisanship that divides the country over the course of national security policy today, the plan represented the unvarnished consensus of a distinguished, bipartisan group of leading national security experts. The Task Force concluded that implementing the proposed strategy would require sustained, active presidential leadership backed by a new senior-level White House coordinator, an infusion of financial resources, and strengthened cooperation with Russia. The Task Force's overarching recommendation was for a rapid increase in the pace of programs to secure Russian weapons, material and expertise.

Brian Finlay, Senior Associate at the Henry L. Stimson Center, and Andrew Grotto, Senior National Security Analyst at the Center for American Progress, analyzed the US Government's progress toward achieiving the Task Force's goals, and offer further recommendations to prioritize existing activities.