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Christopher Clary speaks at Stimson on Doctrine and Capabilities in South Asia
March 12, 2013
On Tuesday, March 12, Christopher Clary presented his and Vipin Narang's work on "Doctrine, Capabilities, and (In)stability in South Asia," as part of Stimson's programming on deterrence stability in South Asia.
Vipin Narang is a Stanton Nuclear Security Junior Faculty Fellow at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation. Christopher Clary, a PhD Candidate in Political Science at MIT, previously served as country director for South Asia in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
Clary defined military doctrine as the statement of how military means are employed to secure national ends, and contended that there is a disjuncture between military capabilities and political ends in South Asia. Rapid military modernization, doctrinal innovation, disagreements about the nature of nuclear deterrence and escalation risks, and abnormal civil-military relations in India and Pakistan have individually and collectively contributed to an environment where military capabilities have outpaced military doctrine on the subcontinent.
Three case studies demonstrated how military developments have exacerbated this disconnect between military capabilities and national goals in South Asia. Clary began with an assessment of the implications of India's decision to test in 1998, primarily: Pakistan's rapid increase in fissile material production and posture of nuclear first use. He next addressed India's "Cold Start" doctrine, arguing that it spurred Pakistan's interest in battlefield nuclear weapons. He also argued that "Cold Start" has never existed in the way that Westerners thought, and suggested reframing the lexicon away from Cold Start in favor of "proactive strategy options," a term reflecting both the terminology actually used within the Indian Army, and also the somewhat limited nature of doctrinal innovation. The final case study discussed the destabilizing effects of the continuing development of long range, precision weapons, which have the potential to alter the nature of a future India-Pakistan conflict.
In South Asia's recent history, inattention to the strategic implications of defense decisions has led to a more dangerous situation for South Asia. In both India and Pakistan, military capabilities have outpaced doctrinal development, and the nuclear age has made this already problematic disconnect more hazardous.
Stimson's programming on South Asia is supported by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and by the National Nuclear Security Administration.